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Warriors Sports Academy

Elite Academy League · PACNW U13 · 17 teams · Warriors Sports Academy (all teams)

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13th
0-2-1 record · 3 played
0.67 points per game
-6 goal diff · 4–10
DDLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.2
-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Warriors Sports Academy
13th · 0.67 PPG
at
Seattle Celtic
16th · 0.00 PPG

Valley Ridge Park, #4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.67 expected points)

Season so farWarriors Sports AcademySeattle Celtic
Position13th16th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-10-0-5
Points per game0.670.00
Goals for / game1.30.8
Goals against / game3.33.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L D DL L L L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–6 at Emerald City FC0–7 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.09-1.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.26+0.03

Common opponents: Mt. Rainier — we 3–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Seattle Celtic average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Emerald City FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 49% / draw 19% / loss 31%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Seattle Celtic have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Valley Ridge Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Emerald City FC sit 12th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above Emerald City FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Seattle Celtic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Warriors Sports Academy – Seattle Celtic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.25 PPG
11th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 4 13th— holds
Win
1.25 PPG
11th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 4 13th— holds
Draw
0.75 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds
Loss
0.50 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 23%
  14. 14th 34%
  15. 15th 11%
  16. 16th 4%
  17. 17th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sparta Tacoma 3.00 (+2.33) 2nd (2.65) 46 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Harbor SC 3.00 (+2.33) 3rd (2.41) 46 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Hawaii 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.65) 46 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 2.50 (+1.83) 4th (2.33) 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 Highline Premier FC 2.00 (+1.33) 8th (1.68) 30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 2.00 (+1.33) 7th (1.74) 30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 1.60 (+0.93) 6th (1.75) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Washington 1.50 (+0.83) 5th (1.84) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
9 Everett FC 1.50 (+0.83) 10th (1.23) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 Mt. Rainier 1.40 (+0.73) 13th (1.00) 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
11 Western WA Surf Academy White 1.20 (+0.53) 12th (1.17) A point next game
12 Emerald City FC 1.00 (+0.33) 11th (1.19) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Warriors Sports Academy to Seattle Celtic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 2–0 0–6 6–0 3–2 1–1 3–1 0–1 0–6 4–0 Warriors Sports Aca… 13th Mt. Rainier 10th Emerald City FC 12th Highline Premier FC 5th Atletico Rojo 14th Sparta Tacoma 1st Seattle Celtic 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.23 · 5th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Seattle Celtic
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Away
Valley Ridge Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 0.92 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
BVBIA Washington
17th · 0-0-6 · GD -30
Away
Tillicum Middle School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.97 1.13 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Western WA Surf Academy Blue
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Robinswood Soccer Field
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.95 1.10 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +20
Away
Pasco Sporting Complex - Soccer Fields
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.14 0.96 Upside
Sat Nov 21
05:00 PM
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Issaquah Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 0.95 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
Atletico Rojo
14th · 1-0-6 · GD -26
Home
Marymoor Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.17 1.08 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Washington
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.57 1.03 Upside
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM
Everett FC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away
Lincoln Field
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.92 1.02 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
Harbor SC
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.13 0.95 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy White
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.27 0.97 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–2 1.01 0.98 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
Sparta Tacoma
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +21
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.20 0.92 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Hawaii
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +18
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.14 0.88 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sparta Tacoma 5500 210+21 153.00 WWWWW -0.89 +0.04 99% 1.9
2 Harbor SC 4400 245+19 123.00 WWWW -0.53 +0.08 92% 3.0
3 ALBION SC Hawaii 3300 213+18 93.00 WWW -1.37 +0.47 96% 2.1
4 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4310 211+20 102.50 WWDW -1.66 +0.28 86% 3.4
5 Highline Premier FC 4220 116+5 82.00 WDWD -0.65 +0.12 5% 7.4
6 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6402 1311+2 122.00 WWWWL +0.10 -0.24 4% 7.0
7 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5221 97+2 81.60 WDWLD +0.72 -0.50 6% 6.9
8 ALBION SC Washington 4202 1610+6 61.50 LWLW +0.86 -0.30 10% 6.2
9 Everett FC 4202 1318-5 61.50 WLLW -0.39 +0.10 0% 10.7
10 Mt. Rainier 5212 615-9 71.40 WLLDW -0.51 +0.24 0% 12.5
11 Western WA Surf Academy White 5203 912-3 61.20 LWWLL -0.61 +0.23 0% 11.2
12 Emerald City FC 6204 1514+1 61.00 LWLLW -0.35 +0.28 0% 11.1
13 Warriors Sports Academy 3021 410-6 20.67 DDL -0.26 +0.23 0% 13.2
14 Atletico Rojo 7106 733-26 30.43 LLWLL +0.33 +0.07 0% 15.5
15 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.08 ——
16 Seattle Celtic 5005 419-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.03 +0.00 0% 15.8
17 BVBIA Washington 6006 636-30 00.00 LLLLL +1.41 -0.44 0% 16.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.