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Emerald City FC

Elite Academy League · PACNW U13 · 17 teams · Emerald City FC (all teams)

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12th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
+1 goal diff · 15–14
LWLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.0
-0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:20 PM

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Emerald City FC
12th · 1.00 PPG
at
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
7th · 1.60 PPG

Valley Ridge Playfield, #3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.3 against · 1.07 expected points)

Season so farEmerald City FCValencia CF Academy - Seattle
Position12th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-42-2-1
Points per game1.001.60
Goals for / game2.51.8
Goals against / game2.31.4
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)W L L W LD L W D W
Biggest win6–0 at Atletico Rojo5–0 at Mt. Rainier
Worst loss0–6 vs Sparta Tacoma0–4 at Sparta Tacoma
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.06+0.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.35+0.72

Common opponents: Sparta Tacoma — we 0–6; they 0–4. Mt. Rainier — we 0–1; they 5–0. Highline Premier FC — we 2–5; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 vs Sparta Tacoma, 0–1 vs Mt. Rainier.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:20 PM at Valley Ridge Playfield.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Western WA Surf Academy White sit 11th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Western WA Surf Academy White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valencia CF Academy - Seattle game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Emerald City FC – Valencia CF Academy - Seattle) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.86 PPG		 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1
Win
1.29 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 3 13th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Loss
0.86 PPG		 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 19%
  11. 11th 24%
  12. 12th 21%
  13. 13th 12%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sparta Tacoma 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.65) 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Harbor SC 3.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.41) 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 ALBION SC Hawaii 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.65) 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 2.50 (+1.50) 4th (2.33) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Highline Premier FC 2.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.68) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 2.00 (+1.00) 7th (1.74) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 1.60 (+0.60) 6th (1.75) 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 ALBION SC Washington 1.50 (+0.50) 5th (1.84) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 Everett FC 1.50 (+0.50) 10th (1.23) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
10 Mt. Rainier 1.40 (+0.40) 13th (1.00) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
11 Western WA Surf Academy White 1.20 (+0.20) 12th (1.17) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Emerald City FC to Valencia CF Academy - Seattle through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 4–0 2–5 2–2 0–1 0–5 6–0 1–7 0–0 6–0 3–3 1–2 7–0 2–1 1–2 0–1 1–3 1–1 Emerald City FC 12th Sparta Tacoma 1st Highline Premier FC 5th Mt. Rainier 10th Atletico Rojo 14th Warriors Sports Aca… 13th Western WA Surf Aca… 6th Washington East Sur… 4th Western WA Surf Aca… 11th Valencia CF Academy… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.28 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:20 PM		 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +2		 Away
Valley Ridge Playfield		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.07 1.01 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM		 Harbor SC
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +19		 Away
Gig Harbor Sports Complex (Tom Taylor YMCA)		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–4 0.36 0.93 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM		 Sting Soccer Club - ID
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
HUB Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.27 0.97 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM		 Seattle Celtic
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -15		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 3–1 2.44 1.11 Bank it
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM		 BVBIA Washington
17th · 0-0-6 · GD -30		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.68 1.26 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Washington
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.78 1.22 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM		 Everett FC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 3–2 1.94 1.27 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +20		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–3 0.52 1.22 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 Western WA Surf Academy White
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.53 1.24 Swing game
Fri Apr 16
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Hawaii
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +18		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.38 1.19 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sparta Tacoma 5500 210+21 153.00 WWWWW -0.89 +0.04 99% 1.9
2 Harbor SC 4400 245+19 123.00 WWWW -0.53 +0.08 92% 3.0
3 ALBION SC Hawaii 3300 213+18 93.00 WWW -1.37 +0.47 96% 2.2
4 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4310 211+20 102.50 WWDW -1.66 +0.28 86% 3.4
5 Highline Premier FC 4220 116+5 82.00 WDWD -0.65 +0.12 5% 7.3
6 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6402 1311+2 122.00 WWWWL +0.10 -0.24 5% 7.0
7 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5221 97+2 81.60 WDWLD +0.72 -0.50 6% 6.9
8 ALBION SC Washington 4202 1610+6 61.50 LWLW +0.86 -0.30 10% 6.3
9 Everett FC 4202 1318-5 61.50 WLLW -0.39 +0.10 0% 10.8
10 Mt. Rainier 5212 615-9 71.40 WLLDW -0.51 +0.24 0% 12.5
11 Western WA Surf Academy White 5203 912-3 61.20 LWWLL -0.61 +0.23 0% 11.3
12 Emerald City FC 6204 1514+1 61.00 LWLLW -0.35 +0.28 0% 11.0
13 Warriors Sports Academy 3021 410-6 20.67 DDL -0.26 +0.23 0% 13.2
14 Atletico Rojo 7106 733-26 30.43 LLWLL +0.33 +0.07 0% 15.5
15 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.08 ——
16 Seattle Celtic 5005 419-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.03 +0.00 0% 15.8
17 BVBIA Washington 6006 636-30 00.00 LLLLL +1.41 -0.44 0% 16.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.