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Highline Premier FC

Elite Academy League · PACNW U13 · 17 teams · Highline Premier FC (all teams)

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5th
2-2-0 record · 4 played
2.00 points per game
+5 goal diff · 11–6
WDWDlast 4
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.4
-0.65 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Highline Premier FC
5th · 2.00 PPG
vs

Delridge Playfield, Delridge North ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.8 against · 1.71 expected points)

Season so farHighline Premier FCWestern WA Surf Academy Blue
Position5th6th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-04-0-2
Points per game2.002.00
Goals for / game2.82.2
Goals against / game1.51.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)D W D WL W W W W
Biggest win5–2 vs Emerald City FC7–0 vs Mt. Rainier
Worst loss—0–8 vs Harbor SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.49+0.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.65+0.10

Common opponents: Atletico Rojo — we 3–1; they 2–0. Emerald City FC — we 5–2; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 50% / draw 20% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Western WA Surf Academy Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Highline Premier FC – Western WA Surf Academy Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.20 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
2.20 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.80 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 4
Loss
1.60 PPG
6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
7.4 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 20%
  8. 8th 19%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sparta Tacoma 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.65) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Harbor SC 3.00 (+1.00) 3rd (2.41) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Hawaii 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.65) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 2.50 (+0.50) 4th (2.33) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

11 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Highline Premier FC to Western WA Surf Academy Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
7 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–2 5–2 1–2 2–2 2–1 1–2 5–0 0–7 0–6 1–0 0–4 0–1 0–6 1–1 3–3 0–6 Highline Premier FC 5th Atletico Rojo 14th Emerald City FC 12th Valencia CF Academy… 7th Warriors Sports Aca… 13th Western WA Surf Aca… 11th Mt. Rainier 10th Sparta Tacoma 1st Western WA Surf Aca… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy Blue
6th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Delridge Playfield
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.71 1.94 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM
Seattle Celtic
16th · 0-0-5 · GD -15
Away
Valley Ridge Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.35 2.01 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
03:30 PM
ALBION SC Washington
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +6
Away
Sirius Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 1.02 1.87 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
BVBIA Washington
17th · 0-0-6 · GD -30
Home
Evergreen High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 1.98 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
4th · 3-1-0 · GD +20
Home
Delridge Playfield
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.71 1.84 Upside
Sat Jan 9
09:00 AM
Everett FC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away
Lincoln Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–2 1.83 1.84 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM
Harbor SC
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +19
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.79 1.74 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Mt. Rainier
10th · 2-1-2 · GD -9
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.37 1.80 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
02:00 PM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
HUB Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 1.77 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy White
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.74 1.77 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Sparta Tacoma
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +21
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.41 1.68 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sparta Tacoma 5500 210+21 153.00 WWWWW -0.89 +0.04 99% 1.9
2 Harbor SC 4400 245+19 123.00 WWWW -0.53 +0.08 92% 3.0
3 ALBION SC Hawaii 3300 213+18 93.00 WWW -1.37 +0.47 96% 2.1
4 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4310 211+20 102.50 WWDW -1.66 +0.28 86% 3.4
5 Highline Premier FC 4220 116+5 82.00 WDWD -0.65 +0.12 5% 7.4
6 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6402 1311+2 122.00 WWWWL +0.10 -0.24 4% 7.0
7 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5221 97+2 81.60 WDWLD +0.72 -0.50 6% 6.9
8 ALBION SC Washington 4202 1610+6 61.50 LWLW +0.86 -0.30 10% 6.2
9 Everett FC 4202 1318-5 61.50 WLLW -0.39 +0.10 0% 10.7
10 Mt. Rainier 5212 615-9 71.40 WLLDW -0.51 +0.24 0% 12.5
11 Western WA Surf Academy White 5203 912-3 61.20 LWWLL -0.61 +0.23 0% 11.2
12 Emerald City FC 6204 1514+1 61.00 LWLLW -0.35 +0.28 0% 11.1
13 Warriors Sports Academy 3021 410-6 20.67 DDL -0.26 +0.23 0% 13.2
14 Atletico Rojo 7106 733-26 30.43 LLWLL +0.33 +0.07 0% 15.5
15 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.08 ——
16 Seattle Celtic 5005 419-15 00.00 LLLLL +0.03 +0.00 0% 15.8
17 BVBIA Washington 6006 636-30 00.00 LLLLL +1.41 -0.44 0% 16.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.