Utica Surf SC
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U14 · 7 teams · Utica Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM
Sal Longo FIeld, Sal Longo Field ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.3 against · 1.80 expected points)
| Season so far | Utica Surf SC | FC Dynamo ROC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D | W L L W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at FC Dutchmen Surf | 5–0 at FC Dutchmen Surf |
| Worst loss | — | 0–8 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.32 | -0.16 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -2.18 | +0.11 |
Common opponents: NY Rush East — we 2–2; they 4–1. FC Dutchmen Surf — we 4–1; they 5–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 54% / draw 17% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Dynamo ROC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utica Surf SC – FC Dynamo ROC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 44%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 10%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.89 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.26) | 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 2 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 2.00 (+0.00) | 1st (2.36) | A point next game |
How the results connect
6 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Utica Surf SC to FC Dynamo ROC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.28 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.80 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:45 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 1.00 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 04:30 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Away Skidmore College · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.70 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 03:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
2–4 | 0.48 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
3–3 | 1.47 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
3–2 | 1.84 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
2–4 | 0.48 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
2–3 | 0.73 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.71 | 1.38 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
5–1 | 2.84 | 1.50 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.80 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 1.00 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 10:45 AM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Monroe Community College |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.39 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 02:30 PM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 1.51 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.41 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 7 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.50 | -0.55 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Utica Surf SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -2.18 | +0.28 | 74% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 7 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | +0.11 | +0.10 | 44% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NY Rush East | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | LDLW | -0.39 | +0.21 | 27% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Nov 22 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rochester Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Apr 3 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 30 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.41 | +0.82 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 15 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.