Rochester Rush
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U14 · 7 teams · Rochester Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, 12:00 AM
TBD, TBD ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 6–1 (expected goals 6.1 for, 1.6 against · 2.83 expected points)
| Season so far | Rochester Rush | FC Dutchmen Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 7.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | — | L L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–12 at NY Rush East |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | -4.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.41 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Dutchmen Surf average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 3.3); blanked in 3 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
FC Dutchmen Surf concede 7.5/game; worst result 0–12 at NY Rush East.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 6–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
FC Dutchmen Surf have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
NY Rush East sit 5th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above NY Rush East on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Dutchmen Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rochester Rush – FC Dutchmen Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 1st▲ up 5 | 2nd▲ up 4 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 1st▲ up 5 | 2nd▲ up 4 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 29%
- 5th 25%
- 6th 20%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.26) | Win next game |
| 2 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 2.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.36) | A point next game |
| 3 | Utica Surf SC | 2.00 (+2.00) | 3rd (1.51) | A point next game |
| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 1.50 (+1.50) | 5th (1.32) | A point next game |
| 5 | NY Rush East | 1.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.18) | A point next game |
Position over the season
6 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.07 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
6–1 | 2.83 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 10:45 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.68 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–3 | 1.31 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.55 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:45 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.83 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:45 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
2–4 | 0.57 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
2–5 | 0.34 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
4–3 | 1.71 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 10:30 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
5–1 | 2.70 | 1.39 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 10:45 AM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 01:00 PM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
5–1 | 2.70 | 1.51 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 02:30 PM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–3 | 1.09 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
3–3 | 1.31 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–3 | 1.09 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.68 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
2–4 | 0.57 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
4–3 | 1.71 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.55 | 1.37 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.41 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 7 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.50 | -0.55 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Utica Surf SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -2.18 | +0.28 | 74% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 7 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | +0.11 | +0.10 | 44% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NY Rush East | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | LDLW | -0.39 | +0.21 | 27% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Nov 22 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rochester Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Apr 3 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 30 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.41 | +0.82 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 15 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.