FC Dutchmen Surf
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U14 · 7 teams · FC Dutchmen Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM
Kevin T Keane Sports Park, ModPac Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–9 (expected goals 1.1 for, 9.2 against · 0.01 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Dutchmen Surf | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-4 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 6.7 |
| Goals against / game | 7.5 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L | L W W |
| Biggest win | — | 10–0 vs NY Rush East |
| Worst loss | 0–12 at NY Rush East | 2–4 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -4.02 | +2.69 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.41 | +0.50 |
Common opponents: FC Dynamo ROC — we 0–5; they 8–0. Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club — we 0–9; they 2–4. NY Rush East — we 0–12; they 10–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy score 6.7/game — well above the league's 3.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy concede only 1.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs FC Dynamo ROC, 0–9 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club, 0–12 at NY Rush East.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 0%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Kevin T Keane Sports Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Rochester Rush sit 6th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Rochester Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dutchmen Surf – Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 0.60 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.20 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–9 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 100%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.26) | 54 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 2 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 2.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.36) | 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Utica Surf SC | 2.00 (+2.00) | 3rd (1.51) | 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 1.50 (+1.50) | 5th (1.32) | 27 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 5 | NY Rush East | 1.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.18) | 18 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | Rochester Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.37) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
8 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link FC Dutchmen Surf to Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.82 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–9 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–5 | 0.17 | 0.03 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:30 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Away Gavin Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.03 | 0.03 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–6 | 0.13 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–6 | 0.13 | 0.05 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home Dicaprio park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–5 | 0.25 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home Dicaprio park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.22 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–9 | 0.01 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home Dicaprio park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–8 | 0.03 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 PM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Dicaprio park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.29 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 10:30 AM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Dicaprio park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–5 | 0.24 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 10:30 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home Dicaprio park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–6 | 0.06 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 01:00 PM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Dicaprio park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–5 | 0.24 | 0.11 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.41 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 7 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.50 | -0.55 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Utica Surf SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -2.18 | +0.28 | 74% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 7 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | +0.11 | +0.10 | 44% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NY Rush East | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | LDLW | -0.39 | +0.21 | 27% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Nov 22 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rochester Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Apr 3 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 30 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.41 | +0.82 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 15 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.