Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U14 · 7 teams · Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM
Accelerate Sports Complex, Accelerate Sports Complex Field 3 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.4 for, 2.7 against · 2.12 expected points)
| Season so far | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | NY Rush East |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-0 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 5.3 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | W L D L |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs FC Dutchmen Surf | 12–0 vs FC Dutchmen Surf |
| Worst loss | — | 0–10 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.77 | -0.19 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.41 | -0.39 |
Common opponents: FC Dutchmen Surf — we 9–0; they 12–0. FC Dynamo ROC — we 3–2; they 1–4. Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy — we 4–2; they 0–10.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 13% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Accelerate Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the NY Rush East game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club – NY Rush East) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
1st— holds | 3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 37%
- 2nd 59%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
8 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club to NY Rush East through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.17 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away Accelerate Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
4–2 | 2.12 | 2.78 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:45 PM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
3–2 | 1.84 | 2.59 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 04:30 PM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home Skidmore College · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–2 | 2.16 | 2.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 12:30 PM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Home Gavin Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.96 | 2.58 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–2 | 2.07 | 2.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
4–2 | 2.36 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
3–3 | 1.30 | 2.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–3 | 0.94 | 2.25 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
4–2 | 2.34 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 10:45 AM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Monroe Community College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
3–2 | 2.03 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
4–2 | 2.12 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 5th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
5–2 | 2.43 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Utica Surf SC 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
3–2 | 1.84 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 10:30 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -29 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
6–1 | 2.91 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
4–2 | 2.34 | 2.26 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.41 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 7 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.50 | -0.55 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Utica Surf SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -2.18 | +0.28 | 73% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 7 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | +0.11 | +0.10 | 47% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NY Rush East | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | LDLW | -0.39 | +0.21 | 26% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Nov 22 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rochester Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Apr 3 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 30 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.41 | +0.82 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 15 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.