Utica Surf SC
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U13 · 7 teams · Utica Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Sal Longo FIeld, Sal Longo Field ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.1 for, 2.3 against · 2.49 expected points)
| Season so far | Utica Surf SC | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L | L L L W |
| Biggest win | 9–2 at FC Dutchmen Surf | 3–1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf |
| Worst loss | 2–8 at NY Rush East | 0–8 vs Rochester Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.01 | -1.87 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.06 | +0.36 |
Common opponents: FC Dutchmen Surf — we 9–2; they 3–1. Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy — we 2–4; they 1–5.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 2 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 5–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club have lost 3 straight (form: WLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
FC Dynamo ROC sit 4th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above FC Dynamo ROC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utica Surf SC – Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 51%
- 5th 38%
- 6th 2%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.50) | 51 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection |
| 2 | NY Rush East | 2.25 (+1.25) | 3rd (1.85) | 38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | Rochester Rush | 2.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.23) | 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 1.20 (+0.20) | 5th (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Utica Surf SC to Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 4th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home Sal Longo FIeld |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
5–2 | 2.49 | 1.37 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.70 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 06:00 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Away Skidmore College · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
4–2 | 2.21 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
3–4 | 0.86 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
3–4 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
2–4 | 0.43 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
2–4 | 0.67 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
5–2 | 2.35 | 1.36 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
5–2 | 2.60 | 1.46 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.70 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
3–3 | 1.32 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
5–2 | 2.49 | 1.54 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away Monroe Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
2–5 | 0.43 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 PM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–4 | 0.68 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 PM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–4 | 0.68 | 1.38 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.14 | -0.44 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NY Rush East | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.24 | -0.12 | 98% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Rochester Rush See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rochester Rush | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.10 | -0.34 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Oct 25 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 7 vs NY Rush East See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | +0.09 | +0.02 | 41% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utica Surf SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.06 | -0.01 | 61% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.36 | +0.32 | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Utica Surf SC · Sun Nov 1 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.26 | +0.58 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Rochester Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.