Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U13 · 7 teams · Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Sal Longo FIeld, Sal Longo Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–5 (expected goals 2.3 for, 5.1 against · 0.42 expected points)
| Season so far | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | Utica Surf SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W | L W L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf | 9–2 at FC Dutchmen Surf |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs Rochester Rush | 2–8 at NY Rush East |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.87 | -0.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.36 | +0.06 |
Common opponents: FC Dutchmen Surf — we 3–1; they 9–2. Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy — we 1–5; they 2–4.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Utica Surf SC score 4.3/game — well above the league's 3.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Utica Surf SC concede 4.7/game; worst result 2–8 at NY Rush East.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at FC Dynamo ROC, 0–8 vs Rochester Rush.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Sal Longo FIeld.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Utica Surf SC sit 5th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above Utica Surf SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utica Surf SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club – Utica Surf SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.60 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–5 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 78%
- 7th 19%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 3.00 (+2.25) | 1st (2.50) | 51 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection |
| 2 | NY Rush East | 2.25 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.85) | 38 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | Rochester Rush | 2.00 (+1.25) | 2nd (2.23) | 33 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 1.20 (+0.45) | 5th (1.28) | Win next game |
| 5 | Utica Surf SC | 1.00 (+0.25) | 4th (1.38) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club to Utica Surf SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.32 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Utica Surf SC 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away Sal Longo FIeld |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
2–5 | 0.42 | 0.68 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
NY Rush East 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Away Accelerate Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.28 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 06:00 PM |
Utica Surf SC 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Skidmore College · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
2–4 | 0.67 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16 |
Home Gavin Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–2 | 1.71 | 0.76 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.25 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.15 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.24 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away Monroe Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.14 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.28 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–4 | 0.47 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Utica Surf SC 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
2–5 | 0.42 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 09:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.36 | 0.60 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.14 | -0.44 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NY Rush East | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.24 | -0.12 | 98% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Rochester Rush See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rochester Rush | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.10 | -0.34 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Oct 25 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 7 vs NY Rush East See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | +0.09 | +0.02 | 41% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utica Surf SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.06 | -0.01 | 61% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.36 | +0.32 | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Utica Surf SC · Sun Nov 1 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.26 | +0.58 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Rochester Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.