NY Rush East
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U13 · 7 teams · NY Rush East (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Accelerate Sports Complex, Accelerate Sports Complex Field 2 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.5 for, 3.4 against · 1.01 expected points)
| Season so far | NY Rush East | Rochester Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L | W L W |
| Biggest win | 8–2 vs Utica Surf SC | 8–0 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 0–1 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.79 | +1.82 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | -0.10 |
Common opponents: Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy — we 1–6; they 0–1. FC Dynamo ROC — we 3–2; they 5–1.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Rochester Rush score 4.3/game — well above the league's 3.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Rochester Rush concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 28%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rochester Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NY Rush East – Rochester Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.80 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 72%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 1%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.50) | 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
How the results connect
9 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link NY Rush East to Rochester Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home Accelerate Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 1.01 | 2.00 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home Accelerate Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 2.11 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away Monroe Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.71 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 02:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.70 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 0.99 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Utica Surf SC 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
4–3 | 2.02 | 1.71 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
Utica Surf SC 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
4–3 | 1.62 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
5–1 | 2.73 | 1.78 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–2 | 2.54 | 1.84 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
3–2 | 1.65 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–2 | 2.00 | 1.84 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
4–1 | 2.43 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Rochester Rush 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.71 | 1.85 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.14 | -0.44 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NY Rush East | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.24 | -0.12 | 99% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Rochester Rush See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rochester Rush | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.10 | -0.34 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Oct 25 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 7 vs NY Rush East See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Dynamo ROC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | +0.09 | +0.02 | 40% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Utica Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utica Surf SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.06 | -0.01 | 62% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.36 | +0.32 | 0% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Utica Surf SC · Sun Nov 1 at NY Rush East · Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.26 | +0.58 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Rochester Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.