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Rochester Rush

Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U13 · 7 teams · Rochester Rush (all teams)

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3rd
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+11 goal diff · 13–2
WLWlast 3
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Rochester Rush
3rd · 2.00 PPG
at
NY Rush East
2nd · 2.25 PPG

Accelerate Sports Complex, Accelerate Sports Complex Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.4 for, 2.5 against · 1.83 expected points)

Season so farRochester RushNY Rush East
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-13-0-1
Points per game2.002.25
Goals for / game4.34.3
Goals against / game0.72.8
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L WW W W L
Biggest win8–0 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club8–2 vs Utica Surf SC
Worst loss0–1 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy1–6 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.82+0.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10-0.24

Common opponents: FC Dynamo ROC — we 5–1; they 3–2. Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy — we 0–1; they 1–6.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    NY Rush East score 4.2/game — well above the league's 3.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 56% / draw 16% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    NY Rush East have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Accelerate Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    NY Rush East sit 2nd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A win moves us above NY Rush East on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NY Rush East game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rochester Rush – NY Rush East) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Win
2.25 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
1.75 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.50 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

24% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.9 average finish
  1. 1st 24%
  2. 2nd 62%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.50) 48 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2 NY Rush East 2.25 (+0.25) 3rd (1.85) Win next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Rochester Rush to NY Rush East through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 2–3 0–1 6–1 3–1 4–1 1–5 8–0 0–3 4–2 2–8 3–1 1–5 Rochester Rush 3rd FC Dynamo ROC 4th Buffalo Pro Soccer … 1st Saratoga-Wilton Soc… 6th FC Dutchmen Surf 7th Utica Surf SC 5th NY Rush East 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 4th 7th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.34 · 6th hardest of 7

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
01:00 PM
no score posted		 FC Dutchmen Surf
7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16		 Away
Dicaprio park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 5–1 2.76 2.19 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 NY Rush East
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6		 Away
Accelerate Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 3–2 1.83 2.12 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM		 NY Rush East
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6		 Home
Monroe Community College		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–2 2.16 2.12 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.87 2.23 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM		 FC Dynamo ROC
4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1		 Home
Monroe Community College		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 3–1 2.39 2.25 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM		 FC Dynamo ROC
4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–1 2.13 2.24 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club
6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.68 2.28 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM		 Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club
6th · 1-0-3 · GD -13		 Home
Monroe Community College		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 5–1 2.81 2.33 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM		 Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14		 Home
Monroe Community College		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.53 2.26 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.22 2.18 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 NY Rush East
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–2 2.16 2.18 Swing game
Sat May 8
09:00 AM		 Utica Surf SC
5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1		 Home
Monroe Community College		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 5–2 2.48 2.20 Bank it
Sat May 8
09:00 AM		 FC Dutchmen Surf
7th · 0-0-4 · GD -16		 Away
Dicaprio park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 5–1 2.76 2.24 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 PM		 Utica Surf SC
5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1		 Away
Sal Longo FIeld		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 4–2 2.19 2.23 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM		 Utica Surf SC
5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 4–2 2.19 2.23 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 5500 195+14 153.00 WWWWW +0.14 -0.44 100% 1.3
2 NY Rush East 4301 1711+6 92.25 LWWW -0.24 -0.12 99% 3.0
3 Rochester Rush 3201 132+11 62.00 WLW -0.10 -0.34 100% 1.9
4 FC Dynamo ROC 5203 1112-1 61.20 WLWLL +0.09 +0.02 40% 4.6
5 Utica Surf SC 3102 1314-1 31.00 LWL +0.06 -0.01 62% 4.3
6 Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 4103 417-13 30.75 WLLL +0.36 +0.32 0% 6.1
7 FC Dutchmen Surf 4004 521-16 00.00 LLLL -0.26 +0.58 0% 6.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.