Mercury Pre- 1
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 7 teams · Mercury (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:20 AM
Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.1 against · 2.12 expected points)
| Season so far | Mercury Pre- 1 | FC Storm Premier 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W W W | L L W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I | 2–0 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I |
| Worst loss | 2–4 at Ohio Elite SA Pre | 0–2 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.86 | -0.26 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.10 | -0.60 |
Common opponents: Cincinnati West Academy Elite I — we 6–0, 4–2; they 2–0. Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 — we 2–1; they 0–1.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Storm Premier 1 average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 19% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:20 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Storm Premier 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- 1 – FC Storm Premier 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 60%
- 3rd 36%
- 4th 3%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Elite SA Pre | 2.67 (+0.67) | 1st (2.58) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre | 2.25 (+0.25) | 3rd (1.89) | 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection |
How the results connect
12 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- 1 to FC Storm Premier 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 09:20 AM |
FC Storm Premier 1 4th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Miami White Water Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 2.02 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Racing Academy Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.00 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Ohio Elite SA Pre | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 7 | +23 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | -0.52 | +0.19 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Fri Oct 30 vs FC Storm Premier 1 See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -1.01 | +0.46 | 99% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Racing Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mercury Pre- 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWLD | +0.10 | -0.26 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sat Nov 14 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Racing Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Storm Premier 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | -0.60 | +0.14 | 53% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Fri Oct 30 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 | 1.00 | WLDWL | +0.60 | -1.99 | 33% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Racing Academy Pre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | +0.53 | -0.19 | 15% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Storm Premier 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Cincinnati West Academy Elite I | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 22 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.97 | -0.66 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 · Sat Oct 31 at FC Storm Premier 1 · Sat Nov 7 at Racing Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.