FC Storm Premier 1

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 7 teams · FC Storm (all teams)

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4th

1-0-2 record · 3 played

1.00 points per game

-1 goal diff · 2–3

WLLlast 3

53% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.6

-0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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FC Storm Premier 1
4th · 1.00 PPG

Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre
2nd · 2.25 PPG

Miami Meadows, field 1 ↗

22% 28% 50%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.3 against · 0.93 expected points)

Season so far	FC Storm Premier 1	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-2	3-0-1
Points per game	1.00	2.25
Goals for / game	0.7	1.8
Goals against / game	1.0	0.3
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	L L W	L W W W
Biggest win	2–0 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I	4–0 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite I
Worst loss	0–2 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre	0–1 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.25	+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.54	-0.96

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 0–2 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (L)

Common opponents: Cincinnati West Academy Elite I — we 2–0; they 4–0. Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 — we 0–1; they 0–1.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre concede only 0.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1, 0–2 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Storm Premier 1 – Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.75 PPG	6th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 2	7th▼ down 3
Win 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 0.75 PPG	6th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 2	7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

53% top 4

47% below the top 4

4.6 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 1%
3rd 6%
4th 45%
5th 25%
6th 20%
7th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Elite SA Pre	2.60 (+1.60)	1st (2.56)	18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre	2.25 (+1.25)	3rd (1.90)	15 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
3	Mercury Pre- 1	2.00 (+1.00)	2nd (2.00)	13 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection

How the results connect

5 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FC Storm Premier 1 to Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 2nd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +6	Home Miami Meadows	●●●●● Very tough	22%	0–1	0.93	0.98	Upside
Sun Oct 25 09:20 AM	Mercury Pre- 1 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +7	Away far trip Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–2	0.69	0.92	Upside
Fri Oct 30 05:30 PM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18	Away far trip Ohio Elite Training Center	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.32	0.82	Upside
Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Home Miami Meadows	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–0	2.20	1.02	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	Racing Academy Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -9	Home Miami Meadows	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–0	1.97	1.14	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Elite SA Pre

+18

2.60

WDWWW

-0.19

-0.47

100%

1.1

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	9–0
W	Fri Oct 16	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Fri Oct 30 vs FC Storm Premier 1 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	5–1	96%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre

2.25

WWWL

-0.96

+0.41

100%

2.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Racing Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–0	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

2.00

WWWLD

+0.10

-0.26

100%

2.4

D	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	2–4
W	Tue Sep 8	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	4–2
W	Fri Sep 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	2–1
W	Thu Aug 27	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	6–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sat Nov 14 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Racing Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	2–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 1

-1

1.00

WLL

-0.54

+0.15

53%

4.6

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–2
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Fri Oct 30 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–0	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1

-7

1.00

WLDWL

+0.54

-1.79

33%

4.8

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	0–0
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–6
W	Fri Sep 18	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	0–1
L	Fri Sep 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Racing Academy Pre

-9

1.00

WLLD

+0.48

-0.13

14%

5.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	1–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Storm Premier 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–1	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati West Academy Elite I

-14

0.00

LLLL

+0.53

+0.05

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–4
L	Tue Sep 8	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	0–2
L	Thu Aug 27	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 · Sat Oct 31 at FC Storm Premier 1 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–5	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.