Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 7 teams · Cincinnati Elite FC (all teams)

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5th

2-1-4 record · 7 played

1.00 points per game

-7 goal diff · 5–12

WLDWLlast 5

33% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8

+0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:40 AM

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Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1
5th · 1.00 PPG

Cincinnati West Academy Elite I
7th · 0.00 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗ far trip

50% 24% 25%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.1 against · 1.75 expected points)

Season so far	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-4	0-0-4
Points per game	1.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.7	0.5
Goals against / game	1.7	4.0
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	3	3
Form (recent first)	L W D L W	L L L L
Biggest win	1–0 at FC Storm Premier 1	—
Worst loss	0–6 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre	0–6 vs Mercury Pre- 1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.56	-1.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.54	+0.53

Common opponents: Mercury Pre- 1 — we 1–2; they 0–6, 2–4. FC Storm Premier 1 — we 1–0; they 0–2. Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre — we 1–0; they 0–4.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Cincinnati West Academy Elite I average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 3 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Cincinnati West Academy Elite I concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–6 vs Mercury Pre- 1.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Racing Academy Pre, 0–6 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre, 0–0 vs Racing Academy Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 24% / loss 25%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Cincinnati West Academy Elite I have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 10:40 AM at Miami White Water Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
FC Storm Premier 1 sit 4th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above FC Storm Premier 1 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati West Academy Elite I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 – Cincinnati West Academy Elite I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Win 1.25 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Loss 0.88 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

33% top 4

67% below the top 4

4.8 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 33%
5th 53%
6th 15%
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Elite SA Pre	2.60 (+1.60)	1st (2.56)	14 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre	2.25 (+1.25)	3rd (1.90)	11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Mercury Pre- 1	2.00 (+1.00)	2nd (2.00)	9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	FC Storm Premier 1	1.00 (+0.00)	4th (1.14)	A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 to Cincinnati West Academy Elite I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.79 · 7th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 10:40 AM	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Away far trip Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.75	1.09	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Elite SA Pre

+18

2.60

WDWWW

-0.19

-0.47

100%

1.1

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	9–0
W	Fri Oct 16	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Fri Oct 30 vs FC Storm Premier 1 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	5–1	96%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre

2.25

WWWL

-0.96

+0.41

100%

2.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Racing Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–0	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

2.00

WWWLD

+0.10

-0.26

100%

2.4

D	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	2–4
W	Tue Sep 8	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	4–2
W	Fri Sep 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	2–1
W	Thu Aug 27	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	6–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sat Nov 14 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Racing Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	2–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 1

-1

1.00

WLL

-0.54

+0.15

53%

4.6

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–2
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Fri Oct 30 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–0	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1

-7

1.00

WLDWL

+0.54

-1.79

33%

4.8

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	0–0
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–6
W	Fri Sep 18	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	0–1
L	Fri Sep 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Racing Academy Pre

-9

1.00

WLLD

+0.48

-0.13

14%

5.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	1–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Storm Premier 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite I (7th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–1	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati West Academy Elite I

-14

0.00

LLLL

+0.53

+0.05

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy Pre (2nd)	0–4
L	Tue Sep 8	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	0–2
L	Thu Aug 27	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 · Sat Oct 31 at FC Storm Premier 1 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–5	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre- 1 (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (4th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.