Ohio Premier Pre- UA

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)

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4th

2-2-4 record · 8 played

1.00 points per game

-1 goal diff · 18–19

LDLDWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0

+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Ohio Premier Pre- UA
4th · 1.00 PPG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
6th · 0.13 PPG

Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

77% 13% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.0 against · 2.43 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Premier Pre- UA	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Position	4th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-4	0-1-7
Points per game	1.00	0.13
Goals for / game	2.3	0.4
Goals against / game	2.4	3.6
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	1	5
Form (recent first)	W D L D L	L L L L D
Biggest win	6–0 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	—
Worst loss	2–5 at Ohio Premier Pre- Sears	0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- UA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.03	-2.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.17	+0.41

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 6–0 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (W)

Common opponents: Ohio Premier Pre- Sears — we 2–5, 2–2; they 1–7, 0–6. Kings Hammer SC Columbus — we 0–3, 3–1; they 0–3, 1–4. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 1–2, 2–2; they 0–0, 1–2. Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast — we 2–4; they 0–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 5 of 8.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre concede 3.6/game; worst result 0–6 at Ohio Premier Pre- UA.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Kings Hammer SC Columbus.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier Pre- UA – Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.22 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.22 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 0.89 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

4.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 100%
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.40 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears	2.80 (+1.80)	1st (2.80)	20 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast	2.25 (+1.25)	2nd (2.30)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Kings Hammer SC Columbus	1.50 (+0.50)	3rd (1.50)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

86 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Ohio Premier Pre- UA to Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

58 favour us

12 even

16 favour them

+1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.50 · 2nd hardest of 3

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 6th · 0-1-7 · GD -26	Away far trip Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–1	2.43	1.16	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast 2nd · 6-0-2 · GD +12	Away far trip Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–3	0.66	1.11	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Premier Pre- Sears

+34

2.80

WWWWD

-0.49

—

100%

1.0

Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast

+12

2.25

LWWWW

-0.01

-1.08

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (4th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Pre- UA · Sat Oct 24 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (4th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (6th)	4–0	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kings Hammer SC Columbus

1.50

WWWLL

-0.05

—

100%

3.0

Ohio Premier Pre- UA

-1

1.00

LDLDW

+0.17

-0.50

100%

4.0

W	Mon Oct 19	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (3rd)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast (2nd)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 12	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Wed Sep 2	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (3rd)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (6th)	6–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (1st)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (6th)	2–1	77%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast (2nd)	1–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

-19

0.80

WLLLL

+0.28

—

5.0

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-26

0.13

DLLLL

+0.41

+0.55

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (1st)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (4th)	0–6
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Pre- UA · Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (4th)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast (2nd)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.