Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Northern Steel (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.5 against · 2.19 expected points)
| Season so far | Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast | Ohio Premier Pre- UA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-2 | 2-2-4 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | W D L D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at WNY Flash Rochester Pre | 6–0 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at Ohio Premier Pre- Sears | 2–5 at Ohio Premier Pre- Sears |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.12 | -0.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | +0.17 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 4–2 at Ohio Premier Pre- UA (W)
Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 1–0; they 6–0. Kings Hammer SC Columbus — we 5–1, 3–0; they 0–3, 3–1. Ohio Premier Pre- Sears — we 2–3, 1–5; they 2–5, 2–2. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 5–0, 2–0; they 1–2, 2–2.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 15% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier Pre- UA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast – Ohio Premier Pre- UA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.11 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 100%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Premier Pre- Sears | 2.80 (+0.55) | 1st (2.80) | 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
86 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast to Ohio Premier Pre- UA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.08 · 3rd hardest of 3
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Ohio Premier Pre- UA 4th · 2-2-4 · GD -1 |
Home Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 6th · 0-1-7 · GD -26 |
Home Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.30 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Ohio Premier Pre- Sears | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 13 | +34 | 28 | 2.80 | WWWWD | -0.49 | — | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 2 | Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 18 | 2.25 | LWWWW | -0.01 | -1.08 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Pre- UA · Sat Oct 24 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kings Hammer SC Columbus | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 20 | +0 | 15 | 1.50 | WWWLL | -0.05 | — | 100% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 4 | Ohio Premier Pre- UA | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 8 | 1.00 | LDLDW | +0.17 | -0.50 | 100% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | WNY Flash Rochester Pre | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 29 | -19 | 8 | 0.80 | WLLLL | +0.28 | — | 0% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 29 | -26 | 1 | 0.13 | DLLLL | +0.41 | +0.55 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Pre- UA · Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Blast See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.