NLSA Surf Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 7 teams · NLSA Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
Mercer County Community College, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.0 against · 1.21 expected points)
| Season so far | NLSA Surf Pre | Delaware FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L W L | D L W L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs PDA South Pre- White | 6–2 vs Keystone Athletic Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White | 1–4 vs FC Europa Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.75 | -0.12 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.61 | -0.39 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 33%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Delaware FC Pre sit 3rd on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Delaware FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Delaware FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NLSA Surf Pre – Delaware FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.86 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 47%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Fit Surf Pre- White | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.78) | 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | PDA South Pre- Blue | 2.17 (+1.17) | 2nd (2.01) | 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | Delaware FC Pre | 1.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.42) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link NLSA Surf Pre to Delaware FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
3 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.36 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 04:00 PM no score posted |
West-Mont United Pre |
Home Twin Pines Turf Field · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.12 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
Delaware FC Pre 3rd · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Mercer County Community College · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.21 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 04:30 PM |
Delaware FC Pre 3rd · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Lower Tweeds |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
PDA South Pre- Blue 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- White 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–5 | 0.19 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–2 | 1.76 | 1.00 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
PA Rush Pre 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 1.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre 6th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
3–2 | 1.87 | 1.13 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 01:45 PM |
PDA South Pre- Blue 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Westampton Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.07 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sun May 23 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre 6th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.54 | 1.18 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Match Fit Surf Pre- White | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.05 | -0.60 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Nov 5 vs PDA South Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Delaware FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | PDA South Pre- Blue | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWD | -0.73 | -0.32 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Nov 5 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White · Sun Nov 8 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Delaware FC Pre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | -0.39 | -0.26 | 92% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NLSA Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NLSA Surf Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLLW | +0.61 | -0.36 | 72% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Delaware FC Pre · Sat Feb 27 at Delaware FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cherry Hill FC Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | W | +0.00 | -0.06 | 17% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | PSA Monmouth Pre | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLW | +1.19 | -0.33 | 13% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs PA Rush Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at PDA South Pre- Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PA Rush Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | -0.09 | -0.10 | 7% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at PSA Monmouth Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.