Match Fit Surf Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 7 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)

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1st

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+30 goal diff · 39–9

WWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-1.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Thu Nov 5, 06:30 PM

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Match Fit Surf Pre- White
1st · 3.00 PPG

PDA South Pre- Blue
2nd · 2.17 PPG

Sycamore Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗

71% 14% 14%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.4 against · 2.29 expected points)

Season so far	Match Fit Surf Pre- White	PDA South Pre- Blue
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	4-1-1
Points per game	3.00	2.17
Goals for / game	6.5	2.8
Goals against / game	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W	D W W W
Biggest win	9–3 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre	4–0 vs PDA South Pre- White
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.58	+0.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.05	-0.73

Game plan

Respect their attack
PDA South Pre- Blue score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Thursday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PDA South Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf Pre- White – PDA South Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

99% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 99%
2nd 1%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Match Fit Surf Pre- White to PDA South Pre- Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

0 favour them

+6.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

3 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.60 · 7th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Thu Nov 5 06:30 PM	PDA South Pre- Blue 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +10	Home Sycamore Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	3–1	2.29	2.90	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 01:30 PM	Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -10	Home Sycamore Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	7–1	2.96	2.91	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 04:30 PM	Delaware FC Pre 3rd · 1-1-2 · GD +0	Away far trip Lower Tweeds	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.46	2.86	Bank it
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Keystone Athletic Pre	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	4–1	2.64	2.83	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	NLSA Surf Pre 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -10	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	5–1	2.75	2.83	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -10	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	6–1	2.91	2.83	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	PA Rush Pre 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–0	2.93	2.84	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Delaware FC Pre 3rd · 1-1-2 · GD +0	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.65	2.83	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	PSA Monmouth Pre 6th · 1-0-6 · GD -22	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	7–1	2.94	2.84	Bank it
Sun May 16 02:15 PM	PA Rush Pre 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11	Away far trip Rush Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	5–1	2.87	2.84	Bank it
Sat May 22 10:45 AM	PDA South Pre- Blue 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +10	Away far trip Westampton Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.02	2.79	Swing game
Sun May 23 10:30 AM	FC Europa Pre	Home Sycamore Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	4–1	2.64	2.78	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Match Fit Surf Pre- White

+30

3.00

WWWW

-1.05

-0.60

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	6–0
W	Wed Sep 23	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (—)	9–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (—)	6–3

Next: Thu Nov 5 vs PDA South Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Delaware FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (—)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	6–0	97%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	4–1	86%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	7–1	97%
·	Sun May 16	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–1	62%
·	Sun May 23	vs	FC Europa Pre (—)	4–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA South Pre- Blue

+10

2.17

WWWD

-0.73

-0.32

100%

2.0

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	YMS Pre (—)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PDA South Pre- White (—)	4–0

Next: Thu Nov 5 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White · Sun Nov 8 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Nov 5	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat May 8	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Delaware FC Pre

1.00

LWLD

-0.39

-0.26

91%

3.4

D	Sun Oct 4	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (—)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Europa Pre (—)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NLSA Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (—)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (—)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat May 15	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 22	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NLSA Surf Pre

-10

1.00

LWLLW

+0.61

-0.36

71%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 4	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	YMS Pre (—)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PDA South Pre- White (—)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	1–2

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Delaware FC Pre · Sat Feb 27 at Delaware FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	3–2	57%
·	Sat May 8	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun May 23	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cherry Hill FC Pre

-10

1.00

+0.00

-0.06

17%

5.6

Sat Oct 3

PDA South Pre- White (—)

2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	YMS Pre (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–3	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 8	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat May 15	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	1–3	20%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA Monmouth Pre

-22

0.43

LLLW

+1.19

-0.33

14%

5.6

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	2–1
L	Wed Sep 23	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	YMS Pre (—)	3–4

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs PA Rush Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at PDA South Pre- Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	PDA South Pre- White (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–2	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat May 15	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sat May 22	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun May 23	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PA Rush Pre

-11

0.00

LLL

-0.09

-0.10

6.2

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (—)	0–7

Next: Sun Sep 27 at PSA Monmouth Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (—)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (—)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Europa Pre (—)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat May 1	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat May 22	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.