Delaware FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 7 teams · Delaware Football Club (all teams)

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3rd

1-1-2 record · 4 played

1.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 8–8

LWLDlast 4

92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4

-0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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Delaware FC Pre
3rd · 1.00 PPG

NLSA Surf Pre
4th · 1.00 PPG

Mercer County Community College, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

46% 21% 33%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.7 against · 1.58 expected points)

Season so far	Delaware FC Pre	NLSA Surf Pre
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-2	2-0-4
Points per game	1.00	1.00
Goals for / game	2.0	1.5
Goals against / game	2.0	3.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	D L W L	W L L W L
Biggest win	6–2 vs Keystone Athletic Pre	4–1 vs PDA South Pre- White
Worst loss	1–4 vs FC Europa Pre	0–6 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.12	-0.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.39	+0.61

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
NLSA Surf Pre concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–6 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at PDA South Pre- Blue.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 21% / loss 33%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Mercer County Community College.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NLSA Surf Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Delaware FC Pre – NLSA Surf Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.40 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.40 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 0.80 PPG	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

92% top 4

8% below the top 4

3.4 average finish

1st
2nd 5%
3rd 63%
4th 24%
5th 6%
6th 2%
7th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Match Fit Surf Pre- White	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.78)	44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	PDA South Pre- Blue	2.17 (+1.17)	2nd (2.01)	31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Delaware FC Pre to NLSA Surf Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

3 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.26 · 3rd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	NLSA Surf Pre 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -10	Away Mercer County Community College · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–1	1.58	1.12	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	Reading Rage Surf Pre	Home Smith Estates · turf	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.44	1.17	Upside
Sat Dec 5 01:30 PM	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre	Home Lower Tweeds	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.44	1.21	Upside
Sun Dec 13 12:30 PM	PA Rush Pre 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11	Home Lower Tweeds	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	1.33	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 04:30 PM	NLSA Surf Pre 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -10	Home Lower Tweeds	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	1.39	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 04:30 PM	Match Fit Surf Pre- White 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30	Home Lower Tweeds	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.42	1.29	Upside
Sat Apr 3 11:30 AM	Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -10	Home Lower Tweeds	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.28	1.38	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 10:30 AM	PSA Monmouth Pre 6th · 1-0-6 · GD -22	Home Smith Estates	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.14	1.45	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 05:00 PM	PDA South Pre- Blue 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +10	Home Smith Estates	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.08	1.42	Upside
Sat May 8 TBD	Match Fit Surf Pre- White 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30	Away	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.27	1.34	Upside
Sat May 15 11:30 AM	PA Rush Pre 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11	Away far trip Rush Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	2–1	1.95	1.38	Swing game
Sat May 22 TBD	Cherry Hill FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -10	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.04	1.42	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Match Fit Surf Pre- White

+30

3.00

WWWW

-1.05

-0.60

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	6–0
W	Wed Sep 23	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (—)	9–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (—)	6–3

Next: Thu Nov 5 vs PDA South Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Delaware FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (—)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	6–0	97%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	4–1	86%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	7–1	97%
·	Sun May 16	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–1	62%
·	Sun May 23	vs	FC Europa Pre (—)	4–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA South Pre- Blue

+10

2.17

WWWD

-0.73

-0.32

100%

2.1

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	YMS Pre (—)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PDA South Pre- White (—)	4–0

Next: Thu Nov 5 at Match Fit Surf Pre- White · Sun Nov 8 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Nov 5	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat May 8	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Delaware FC Pre

1.00

LWLD

-0.39

-0.26

92%

3.4

D	Sun Oct 4	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (—)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Europa Pre (—)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NLSA Surf Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (—)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (—)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat May 15	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 22	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NLSA Surf Pre

-10

1.00

LWLLW

+0.61

-0.36

74%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 4	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	YMS Pre (—)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PDA South Pre- White (—)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	1–2

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Delaware FC Pre · Sat Feb 27 at Delaware FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	3–2	57%
·	Sat May 8	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun May 23	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cherry Hill FC Pre

-10

1.00

+0.00

-0.06

16%

5.6

Sat Oct 3

PDA South Pre- White (—)

2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs PSA Monmouth Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	YMS Pre (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–3	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 8	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat May 15	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	1–3	20%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA Monmouth Pre

-22

0.43

LLLW

+1.19

-0.33

12%

5.7

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	2–1
L	Wed Sep 23	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	West-Mont United Pre (—)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	YMS Pre (—)	3–4

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs PA Rush Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at PDA South Pre- Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	PDA South Pre- White (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	3–2	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat May 15	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sat May 22	at	PA Rush Pre (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun May 23	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PA Rush Pre

-11

0.00

LLL

-0.09

-0.10

6.2

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (—)	0–7

Next: Sun Sep 27 at PSA Monmouth Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Reading Rage Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	at	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (—)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (—)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Europa Pre (—)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NLSA Surf Pre (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat May 1	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (5th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Delaware FC Pre (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat May 22	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (6th)	2–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.