New England Surf Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 8 teams · New England Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
Union Point Sports Complex, Field 3 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.23 expected points)
| Season so far | New England Surf Pre | Albany Alleycats Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 4-0-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 6.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | W W W W |
| Biggest win | 11–0 at Vale Rush United Pre | 4–0 at Select Northeast Pre |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +3.12 | +1.10 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.99 | -0.80 |
Common opponents: Vale Rush United Pre — we 11–0; they 2–1. Select Northeast Pre — we 5–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Albany Alleycats Pre concede only 0.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 18% / loss 14%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
They arrive in form
Albany Alleycats Pre have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Albany Alleycats Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (New England Surf Pre – Albany Alleycats Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 96%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
9 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link New England Surf Pre to Albany Alleycats Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.29 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Albany Alleycats Pre 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home Union Point Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM |
Scorpions SC Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home Union Point Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Home Union Point Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–0 | 2.79 | 2.82 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 10:30 AM |
Vale Rush United Pre 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Home Union Point Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 2.82 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -17 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Albany Alleycats Pre 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 2.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Select Northeast Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -13 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
5–0 | 2.96 | 2.78 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 2.71 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
Select Northeast Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -13 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 2.73 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Scorpions SC Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.58 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 2.71 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Vale Rush United Pre 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 2.73 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -17 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.74 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Albany Alleycats Pre 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.72 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.19 | 2.69 | Swing game |
| Sun Jun 6 TBD |
Scorpions SC Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 2.69 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | New England Surf Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | +25 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.99 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Stars New Hampshire Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Albany Alleycats Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.80 | +0.02 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Connecticut Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AC Connecticut Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.13 | -0.20 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Stars New Hampshire Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.86 | +0.20 | 41% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select Northeast Pre · Sun Nov 1 at New England Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Scorpions SC Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.19 | +0.04 | 59% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Vale Rush United Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.27 | +0.22 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at New England Surf Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Select Northeast Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.51 | -0.05 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars New Hampshire Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Vale Rush United Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Connecticut FC Legacy Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.60 | +0.27 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Albany Alleycats Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Select Northeast Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.