AC Connecticut Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU12 · 8 teams · AC Connecticut (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM
Western Connecticut State University - Westside At, Field 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.4 for, 0.8 against · 2.82 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Connecticut Pre | Vale Rush United Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre | 4–2 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–1 at New England Surf Pre | 0–11 vs New England Surf Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.40 | -1.73 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.13 | +0.27 |
Common opponents: New England Surf Pre — we 0–1; they 0–11. Scorpions SC Pre — we 3–1; they 0–4. Connecticut FC Legacy Pre — we 6–0; they 4–2.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Vale Rush United Pre concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–11 vs New England Surf Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at New England Surf Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Vale Rush United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Connecticut Pre – Vale Rush United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 54%
- 3rd 42%
- 4th 2%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Surf Pre | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.69) | 54 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection |
| 2 | Albany Alleycats Pre | 3.00 (+0.75) | 3rd (2.13) | 54 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
How the results connect
10 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link AC Connecticut Pre to Vale Rush United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.20 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26 09:00 AM no score posted |
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -17 |
Home Western Connecticut State University - Westside At |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 2.38 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM |
Vale Rush United Pre 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Home Western Connecticut State University - Westside At |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 12:45 PM |
Albany Alleycats Pre 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Afrims Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 2.29 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:30 AM |
Albany Alleycats Pre 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home Western Connecticut State University - Westside At |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Scorpions SC Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 2.18 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Scorpions SC Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
New England Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +25 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Select Northeast Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -13 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.76 | 2.10 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 01:30 PM |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Home Western Connecticut State University - Westside At |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.33 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Vale Rush United Pre 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.70 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Albany Alleycats Pre 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -17 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
New England Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 2.08 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Select Northeast Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -13 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.64 | 2.11 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 08:00 PM |
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Jun 5 TBD |
Vale Rush United Pre 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -15 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.14 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | New England Surf Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | +25 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.99 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Stars New Hampshire Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Albany Alleycats Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.80 | +0.02 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Connecticut Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AC Connecticut Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.13 | -0.20 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Stars New Hampshire Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.86 | +0.20 | 40% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select Northeast Pre · Sun Nov 1 at New England Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Scorpions SC Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.19 | +0.04 | 60% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Vale Rush United Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.27 | +0.22 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC Pre · Sat Nov 14 at New England Surf Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Select Northeast Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.51 | -0.05 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars New Hampshire Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Vale Rush United Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Connecticut FC Legacy Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.60 | +0.27 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Albany Alleycats Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Select Northeast Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.