SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU12 · 11 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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1st

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+15 goal diff · 20–5

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

+0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN
1st · 3.00 PPG

Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez
11th · 0.00 PPG

Railroad Park , Field 9 ↗

99%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 8–0 (expected goals 8.3 for, 0.8 against · 2.98 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez
Position	1st	11th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	0-0-4
Points per game	3.00	0.00
Goals for / game	4.0	0.5
Goals against / game	1.0	6.5
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L L L
Biggest win	4–0 vs Nido Dallas Pre Silos	—
Worst loss	—	0–11 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.00	-3.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.18	+0.84

Common opponents: Dallas Texans Pre- Grady — we 3–1; they 1–5. Nido Dallas Pre Silos — we 4–0; they 1–6.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 2 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez concede 6.5/game; worst result 0–11 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 8–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN – Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 8–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

97% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 97%
2nd 3%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN to Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

0 favour them

+9.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.06 · 9th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez 11th · 0-0-4 · GD -24	Home Railroad Park	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	8–0	2.98	3.00	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -2	Away Railroad Park	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–0	2.22	2.89	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON 6th · 2-0-3 · GD +3	Home Railroad Park	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.30	2.81	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN

+15

3.00

WWWWW

+0.18

-1.06

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	6–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez · Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez · Sun Nov 1 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	8–0	99%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	2–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Grady

+12

2.50

WWWWW

-0.77

+0.98

91%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Sun Nov 1 at Nido Dallas Pre Silos See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark

+15

2.17

LWWWD

-0.94

+0.42

95%

2.9

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	11–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Pre- Grady · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Wong See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	2–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- JAIME

1.80

WLLWW

+0.20

-1.63

90%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	4–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley · Sun Nov 8 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	5–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre Silos

1.67

LWWLD

-0.09

+0.02

21%

4.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Pre- Tapia · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Grady See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	2–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON

1.20

WWLLL

-0.49

+0.56

7.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Pre- Tapia See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez

-2

1.17

WWLLD

+0.29

+0.46

7.4

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Tapia · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	0–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Wong

-3

1.00

LLDW

+0.66

-1.18

6.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	3–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting Pre- Tapia (9th)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Tapia

-10

0.75

WLLL

+1.33

+0.07

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	2–6
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez · Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas Pre Silos · Sat Nov 7 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley

-16

0.00

LLLLL

+0.66

-0.91

10.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Martinez (7th)	0–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Wong · Thu Nov 5 at Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- JAIME See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	1–2	17%
·	Thu Nov 5	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez (11th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	0–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Lopez

-24

0.00

LLLL

+0.84

+0.15

10.7

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Grady (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (3rd)	0–11
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Silos (5th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre AXON (6th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Pre- Wong · Thu Nov 5 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Pre- Wong (8th)	1–3	9%
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- O'Malley (10th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (4th)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.