TableChase Clubs

Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU11 · 12 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
4-1-2 record · 7 played
1.86 points per game
+5 goal diff · 14–9
LWLWWlast 5
52% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3
-0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave
3rd · 1.86 PPG
vs

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3A ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.7 against · 1.21 expected points)

Season so farSting Pre- Fuentes BraveFC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-23-2-1
Points per game1.861.83
Goals for / game2.02.5
Goals against / game1.31.0
Clean sheets42
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)W W L W LD W W W D
Biggest win7–0 at FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY4–0 at FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY
Worst loss0–5 at Sting WTX Pre- Munoz1–2 vs Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.47+1.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.28-0.03

Common opponents: Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas — we 0–0; they 1–2. Sting WTX Pre- Munoz — we 0–5; they 2–2. FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY — we 7–0; they 4–0. FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally — we 0–3; they 2–0. Sting Pre- Bagwell — we 1–0; they 1–1. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans — we 5–1; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas, 0–5 at Sting WTX Pre- Munoz, 0–3 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave – FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.75 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.63 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
52% top 4
49% below the top 4
4.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 25%
  4. 4th 25%
  5. 5th 35%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS 3.00 (+1.14) 2nd (2.43) 11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Sting WTX Pre- Munoz 2.75 (+0.89) 1st (2.75) 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

22 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave to FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
3 even
12 favour them
-1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–5 1–0 1–1 0–0 2–1 7–0 0–4 0–3 0–2 0–5 2–2 2–2 1–2 1–2 2–3 5–0 0–1 Sting Pre- Fuentes … 3rd FC Dallas Youth Pre… 9th Sting Pre- Bagwell 7th Nido Dallas Pre A. … 5th FRISCO FUSION Pre M… 8th FC Dallas Youth Pre… 6th Sting WTX Pre- Munoz 2nd FC Dallas Youth Pre… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.00 · 1st hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +9
Home
Fairview Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.21 1.78 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS 4400 91+8 123.00 WWWW -0.94 -0.04 99% 2.1
2 Sting WTX Pre- Munoz 8710 309+21 222.75 WWWWD -0.22 — 100% 1.1
3 Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave 7412 149+5 131.86 LWLWW -0.28 +1.00 52% 4.3
4 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West 6321 156+9 111.83 DWWWD -0.03 +0.68 58% 4.2
5 Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas 6312 158+7 101.67 DLLWW +0.15 -0.61 71% 4.0
6 FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally 5203 59-4 61.20 LLLWW +0.08 -0.67 3% 6.9
7 Sting Pre- Bagwell 4112 64+2 41.00 LDLW +0.47 -0.31 17% 5.9
8 FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY 5113 417-13 40.80 WDLLL +0.19 -0.69 0% 8.9
9 FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 5014 515-10 10.20 LDLLL +0.24 +0.08 0% 10.0
10 DKSC Pre- Rivas 0000 00+0 00.00 — — ——
11 SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ 4004 414-10 00.00 LLLL +0.99 -1.27 0% 8.6
12 SOLAR PRE- MADRID 4004 318-15 00.00 LLLL +1.04 -0.69 0% 10.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.