SOLAR PRE- MADRID

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU11 · 12 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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12th

0-0-4 record · 4 played

0.00 points per game

-15 goal diff · 3–18

LLLLlast 4

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.1

+1.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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SOLAR PRE- MADRID
12th · 0.00 PPG

Sting Pre- Bagwell
7th · 1.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 1B ↗

7% 11% 82%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.2 against · 0.32 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- MADRID	Sting Pre- Bagwell
Position	12th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-4	1-1-2
Points per game	0.00	1.00
Goals for / game	0.8	1.5
Goals against / game	4.5	1.0
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	L L L L	W L D L
Biggest win	—	4–0 vs SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ
Worst loss	1–7 vs Sting WTX Pre- Munoz	1–2 at Sting WTX Pre- Munoz
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.82	+0.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.04	+0.47

Common opponents: Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave — we 0–1; they 0–1. Sting WTX Pre- Munoz — we 1–7; they 1–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave, 0–2 at SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- Bagwell game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- MADRID – Sting Pre- Bagwell) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	12th— holds	12th— holds	12th— holds
Win 0.60 PPG	9th▲ up 3	10th▲ up 2	10th▲ up 2
Draw 0.20 PPG	10th▲ up 2	11th▲ up 1	11th▲ up 1
Loss 0.00 PPG	12th— holds	12th— holds	12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

10.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th 1%
7th 2%
8th 8%
9th 18%
10th 27%
11th 35%
12th 10%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS	3.00 (+3.00)	2nd (2.43)	24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz	2.75 (+2.75)	1st (2.75)	22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave	1.86 (+1.86)	3rd (1.78)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West	1.83 (+1.83)	5th (1.75)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas	1.67 (+1.67)	4th (1.76)	14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally	1.20 (+1.20)	7th (1.26)	10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
7	Sting Pre- Bagwell	1.00 (+1.00)	6th (1.40)	8 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
8	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY	0.80 (+0.80)	9th (0.80)	7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
9	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans	0.20 (+0.20)	11th (0.43)	A point next game
10	DKSC Pre- Rivas	0.00 (+0.00)	12th (0.00)	Already ahead
11	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ	0.00 (+0.00)	8th (0.80)	Already ahead

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- MADRID to Sting Pre- Bagwell through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

2 even

9 favour them

-4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.69 · 8th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Sting Pre- Bagwell 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +2	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.32	0.06	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -13	Home Railroad Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.55	0.31	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ 11th · 0-0-4 · GD -10	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.89	0.39	Upside
Sat Nov 7 02:30 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -4	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.94	0.46	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS

3.00

WWWW

-0.94

-0.04

99%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ (11th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Pre- Bagwell · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (6th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Pre- Bagwell (7th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (9th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (4th)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting WTX Pre- Munoz

+21

2.75

WWWWD

-0.22

—

100%

1.1

Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave

1.86

LWLWW

-0.28

+1.00

51%

4.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (9th)	5–1
W	Thu Oct 8	vs	Sting Pre- Bagwell (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (6th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	7–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	0–5
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (12th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (4th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West

1.83

DWWWD

-0.03

+0.68

59%

4.2

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Bagwell (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas

1.67

DLLWW

+0.15

-0.61

71%

4.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (12th)	8–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ (11th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (4th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Bagwell · Sat Nov 7 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally

-4

1.20

LLLWW

+0.08

-0.67

6.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (9th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave (3rd)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS · Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- MADRID See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ (11th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (12th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Bagwell

1.00

LDLW

+0.47

-0.31

17%

5.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ (11th)	4–0
L	Thu Oct 8	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- MADRID · Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS · Sat Oct 31 vs Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (12th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (9th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY

-13

0.80

WDLLL

+0.19

-0.69

8.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (4th)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- MADRID · Sat Nov 7 at Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ (11th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (12th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas (5th)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans

-10

0.20

LDLLL

+0.24

+0.08

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave (3rd)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Avant West (4th)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Bagwell · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell (7th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ (11th)	2–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Rivas

0.00

—

SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ

-10

0.00

LLLL

+0.99

-1.27

8.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell (7th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- MADRID See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (12th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (9th)	1–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- MADRID

-15

0.00

LLLL

+1.04

-0.69

10.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Nido Dallas Pre A. Rivas (5th)	2–8
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Munoz (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Bagwell · Sat Oct 31 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Bagwell (7th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre MIRSKY (8th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SOLAR PRE- JIMENEZ (11th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (6th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.