Sting Pre- Bagwell

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Fairview Soccer Park , Field 1B ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 0.9 against · 2.57 expected points)

Common opponents: Sting WTX Pre- Munoz — we 1–2; they 1–7. Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave — we 0–1; they 0–1.

• They struggle to score
  SOLAR PRE- MADRID average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 2 of 4.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  SOLAR PRE- MADRID concede 4.5/game; worst result 1–7 vs Sting WTX Pre- Munoz.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Sting Pre- Fuentes Brave.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  SOLAR PRE- MADRID have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally sit 6th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

  A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- MADRID game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Bagwell – SOLAR PRE- MADRID) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd 1%
3. 3rd 6%
4. 4th 10%
5. 5th 15%
6. 6th 36%
7. 7th 26%
8. 8th 6%
9. 9th 1%
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th
12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).