SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU11 · 10 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3B ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.54 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI | BVBIA DFW Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-5 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.8 | 6.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–7 vs DKSC Pre- Lopez | 0–10 vs Alpha Forms Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.57 | -3.68 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.62 | +0.62 |
Common opponents: Alpha Forms Pre — we 3–3; they 0–10. Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson — we 0–4; they 0–9. Sting Pre- Girau — we 2–3; they 0–2. OK Energy FC Pre II — we 0–2; they 0–5.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
BVBIA DFW Pre average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 5 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
BVBIA DFW Pre concede 6.2/game; worst result 0–10 vs Alpha Forms Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 at Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson, 0–7 vs DKSC Pre- Lopez, 0–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre II.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
BVBIA DFW Pre have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the BVBIA DFW Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI – BVBIA DFW Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 0.57 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Win 0.57 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.29 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Loss 0.14 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th 3%
- 9th 90%
- 10th 8%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 0.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DKSC Pre- Lopez | 2.60 (+2.43) | 1st (2.59) | 20 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark | 2.00 (+1.83) | 2nd (1.99) | 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Sting Pre- Girau | 2.00 (+1.83) | 5th (1.63) | 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson | 1.88 (+1.71) | 3rd (1.88) | 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | SOLAR PRE- BATES | 1.86 (+1.69) | 4th (1.67) | 14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Alpha Forms Pre | 1.33 (+1.16) | 6th (1.36) | 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | OK Energy FC Pre II | 1.25 (+1.08) | 8th (1.25) | 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Sting Pre- Fuentes | 1.00 (+0.83) | 7th (1.34) | 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
23 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI to BVBIA DFW Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.89 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:30 PM |
BVBIA DFW Pre 10th · 0-0-5 · GD -31 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.54 | 0.51 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:30 PM |
Sting Pre- Fuentes 8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.62 | 0.52 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DKSC Pre- Lopez | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | +0.20 | -1.09 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- BATES · Sat Oct 31 at BVBIA DFW Pre · Thu Nov 5 vs Sting Pre- Girau See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.22 | +0.32 | 90% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Girau · Thu Nov 5 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Sting Pre- Girau | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWWL | -0.99 | +1.08 | 47% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Fuentes · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Thu Nov 5 at DKSC Pre- Lopez See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 15 | 1.88 | WWWLL | -0.16 | — | 99% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | SOLAR PRE- BATES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 13 | 1.86 | WLDWW | +0.18 | +1.94 | 34% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Lopez See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Alpha Forms Pre | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 8 | 1.33 | DLDWW | -0.33 | +0.66 | 13% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | OK Energy FC Pre II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 | 1.25 | LLWLW | -0.04 | — | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Sting Pre- Fuentes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.29 | -0.55 | 17% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Girau · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI · Sun Nov 1 vs BVBIA DFW Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.62 | -1.89 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA DFW Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | BVBIA DFW Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 31 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.62 | +0.09 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Lopez · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.