DKSC Pre- Lopez

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU11 · 10 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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1st

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+15 goal diff · 18–3

DWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

+0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM

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DKSC Pre- Lopez
1st · 2.60 PPG

SOLAR PRE- BATES
5th · 1.86 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

80% 11% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.3 against · 2.51 expected points)

Season so far	DKSC Pre- Lopez	SOLAR PRE- BATES
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	4-1-2
Points per game	2.60	1.86
Goals for / game	3.6	2.6
Goals against / game	0.6	2.4
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W D	W W D L W
Biggest win	7–0 at SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI	6–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre II
Worst loss	—	0–7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.94	+0.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.20	+0.18

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark — we 2–2; they 0–7. Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson — we 5–1; they 2–3. Alpha Forms Pre — we 2–0; they 2–2. SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI — we 7–0; they 4–2. OK Energy FC Pre II — we 2–0; they 6–2.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- BATES game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC Pre- Lopez – SOLAR PRE- BATES) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.17 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

97% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 97%
2nd 3%
3rd
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

24 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC Pre- Lopez to SOLAR PRE- BATES through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

1 even

6 favour them

+2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.09 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM	SOLAR PRE- BATES 5th · 4-1-2 · GD +1	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.51	2.59	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 08:00 AM	BVBIA DFW Pre 10th · 0-0-5 · GD -31	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	6–0	2.97	2.64	Bank it
Thu Nov 5 07:15 PM	Sting Pre- Girau 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +4	Home Railroad Park	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.26	2.59	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

DKSC Pre- Lopez

+15

2.60

DWWWW

+0.20

-1.09

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- BATES · Sat Oct 31 at BVBIA DFW Pre · Thu Nov 5 vs Sting Pre- Girau See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	6–0	99%
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	2–0	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark

+12

2.00

DWWLW

-0.22

+0.32

90%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 10	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	7–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Girau · Thu Nov 5 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Girau

2.00

WDWWL

-0.99

+1.08

48%

4.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Fuentes · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Thu Nov 5 at DKSC Pre- Lopez See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	1–1	27%
·	Thu Nov 5	at	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson

+11

1.88

WWWLL

-0.16

—

99%

3.0

SOLAR PRE- BATES

1.86

WLDWW

+0.18

+1.94

34%

4.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	4–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Lopez See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alpha Forms Pre

1.33

DLDWW

-0.33

+0.66

13%

6.2

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	10–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Pre II

-3

1.25

LLWLW

-0.04

—

7.3

Sting Pre- Fuentes

-1

1.00

LWL

+0.29

-0.55

16%

6.4

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Girau · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI · Sun Nov 1 vs BVBIA DFW Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	4–0	92%
·	Thu Nov 5	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI

-16

0.17

LLLLL

+0.62

-1.89

9.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA DFW Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA DFW Pre

-31

0.00

LLLLL

+0.62

+0.09

9.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Lopez · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	0–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.