SOLAR PRE- BATES

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU11 · 10 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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5th

4-1-2 record · 7 played

1.86 points per game

+1 goal diff · 18–17

WLDWWlast 5

35% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7

+0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM

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SOLAR PRE- BATES
5th · 1.86 PPG

DKSC Pre- Lopez
1st · 2.60 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

9% 11% 80%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.6 against · 0.38 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- BATES	DKSC Pre- Lopez
Position	5th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-2	4-1-0
Points per game	1.86	2.60
Goals for / game	2.6	3.6
Goals against / game	2.4	0.6
Clean sheets	1	3
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W D L W	W W W W D
Biggest win	6–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre II	7–0 at SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI
Worst loss	0–7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.16	+1.94
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.18	+0.20

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark — we 0–7; they 2–2. OK Energy FC Pre II — we 6–2; they 2–0. Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson — we 2–3; they 5–1. Alpha Forms Pre — we 2–2; they 2–0. SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI — we 4–2; they 7–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
DKSC Pre- Lopez score 3.6/game — well above the league's 2.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
DKSC Pre- Lopez concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
DKSC Pre- Lopez have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson sit 4th on 1.88 PPG; we are on 1.86.
A point moves us above Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC Pre- Lopez game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- BATES – DKSC Pre- Lopez) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.63 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	4th▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 2	4th▲ up 1
Draw 1.75 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.63 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

35% top 4

65% below the top 4

4.7 average finish

1st
2nd 3%
3rd 6%
4th 26%
5th 52%
6th 13%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	DKSC Pre- Lopez	2.60 (+0.74)	1st (2.59)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark	2.00 (+0.14)	2nd (1.99)	Win next game
3	Sting Pre- Girau	2.00 (+0.14)	5th (1.63)	Win next game
4	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson	1.88 (+0.02)	3rd (1.88)	A point next game

How the results connect

24 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- BATES to DKSC Pre- Lopez through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

1 even

17 favour them

-2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.94 · 1st hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM	DKSC Pre- Lopez 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +15	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	9%	1–3	0.38	1.67	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

DKSC Pre- Lopez

+15

2.60

DWWWW

+0.20

-1.09

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- BATES · Sat Oct 31 at BVBIA DFW Pre · Thu Nov 5 vs Sting Pre- Girau See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	6–0	99%
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	2–0	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark

+12

2.00

DWWLW

-0.22

+0.32

90%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 10	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	7–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Girau · Thu Nov 5 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	1–1	51%
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Girau

2.00

WDWWL

-0.99

+1.08

46%

4.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Fuentes · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Thu Nov 5 at DKSC Pre- Lopez See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	1–1	27%
·	Thu Nov 5	at	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson

+11

1.88

WWWLL

-0.16

—

99%

3.0

SOLAR PRE- BATES

1.86

WLDWW

+0.18

+1.94

35%

4.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	4–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre- Lopez See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alpha Forms Pre

1.33

DLDWW

-0.33

+0.66

13%

6.2

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	10–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Pre II

-3

1.25

LLWLW

-0.04

—

7.4

Sting Pre- Fuentes

-1

1.00

LWL

+0.29

-0.55

16%

6.3

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Girau · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI · Sun Nov 1 vs BVBIA DFW Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	4–0	92%
·	Thu Nov 5	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI

-16

0.17

LLLLL

+0.62

-1.89

9.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- BATES (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA DFW Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (10th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA DFW Pre

-31

0.00

LLLLL

+0.62

+0.09

9.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Girau (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (6th)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Nelson (4th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre- Lopez · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- FIASCHETTI (9th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre- Lopez (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (8th)	0–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.