SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 11 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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3rd

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+2 goal diff · 10–8

LWDWWlast 5

95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9

+0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ
3rd · 2.00 PPG

FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally
11th · 0.20 PPG

Railroad Park , Field 10 ↗

77% 14% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.8 against · 2.45 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally
Position	3rd	11th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	0-1-4
Points per game	2.00	0.20
Goals for / game	2.0	0.2
Goals against / game	1.6	3.2
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	2	4
Form (recent first)	W W D W L	L D L L L
Biggest win	5–2 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA	—
Worst loss	0–4 at Sting WTX Pre- Thompson	0–7 at BVBIA DFW Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.32	-1.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.14	+0.01

Common opponents: FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA — we 5–2; they 0–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 4 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–7 at BVBIA DFW Pre.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Sting WTX Pre- Thompson, 0–0 vs DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Railroad Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
BVBIA DFW Pre sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.
A point moves us above BVBIA DFW Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ – FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.17 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Win 2.17 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.83 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.67 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

95% top 4

5% below the top 4

2.9 average finish

1st
2nd 40%
3rd 42%
4th 13%
5th 3%
6th 2%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson	3.00 (+1.00)	1st (3.00)	14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	BVBIA DFW Pre	2.00 (+0.00)	2nd (2.07)	A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ to FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+4.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.01 · 10th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally 11th · 0-1-4 · GD -15	Away Railroad Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.45	2.07	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans 6th · 2-2-2 · GD -6	Away Railroad Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–1	1.87	2.04	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 08:30 AM	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -4	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–0	1.73	2.01	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sting WTX Pre- Thompson

+25

3.00

WWWWW

-0.03

—

100%

1.0

BVBIA DFW Pre

+13

2.00

LWLWW

-0.29

-0.25

98%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	7–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (10th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Prokof See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (9th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Prokof (5th)	3–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ

2.00

LWDWW

+0.14

-1.01

95%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA (4th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (10th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- JENKINS (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (9th)	1–0	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA

-1

1.50

WLWLL

+0.22

-0.27

34%

5.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (2nd)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (9th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- JENKINS · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- JENKINS (7th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black (8th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Prokof

1.33

LLDWD

-0.23

+0.36

12%

5.9

D	Thu Oct 22	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	5–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (9th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 11	at	SOLAR PRE- JENKINS (7th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA DFW Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- Fuentes See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (2nd)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (10th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans

-6

1.33

LWWLD

-0.24

+0.04

6.7

D	Thu Oct 22	vs	Sting Pre- Prokof (5th)	5–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (2nd)	0–7
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA (4th)	2–5
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (10th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- JENKINS See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- JENKINS (7th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- JENKINS

-3

1.00

LLDW

+0.46

-0.75

34%

5.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (10th)	3–2
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sting Pre- Prokof (5th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally · Sun Nov 1 vs DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black (8th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black

-4

1.00

LDLW

+0.95

-0.70

17%

6.4

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting Pre- Prokof (5th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	0–5
D	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Fuentes · Sat Oct 31 vs FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA · Sun Nov 1 at SOLAR PRE- JENKINS See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Fuentes (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SOLAR PRE- JENKINS (7th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS

-4

0.83

DWDLL

-0.23

+0.85

8.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Prokof (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally (11th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA (4th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Fuentes (10th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at BVBIA DFW Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ (3rd)	0–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Fuentes

-7

0.33

DLLLL

+0.42

-0.18

9.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- JENKINS (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting WTX Pre- Thompson (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (9th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Pre- Prokof See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting Pre- Prokof (5th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- McAnally

-15

0.20

LLLDL

+0.01

-0.08

10.8

L	Sun Oct 4	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (2nd)	0–7
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- CAMPOS (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Evans (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Prokof (5th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FRISCO FUSION Pre ARANHA (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- JENKINS · Sat Nov 7 at DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- GONZALEZ (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- JENKINS (7th)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel Black (8th)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.