Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 10 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

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10th

0-0-5 record · 5 played

0.00 points per game

-36 goal diff · 1–37

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.0

+0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna
10th · 0.00 PPG

Dallas Texans Pre- Ott
1st · 2.67 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6B ↗

0% 99%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–7 (expected goals 0.7 for, 8.0 against · 0.01 expected points)

Season so far	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott
Position	10th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-5	5-1-0
Points per game	0.00	2.67
Goals for / game	0.2	3.8
Goals against / game	7.4	1.0
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	4	0
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	W W W W W
Biggest win	—	6–1 vs SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN
Worst loss	0–13 vs DKSC Pre- Esquivel	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-4.30	+2.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.66	+0.16

Common opponents: Alpha Forms Pre — we 1–3; they 5–0. Sting Pre- Blencoe — we 0–6; they 5–2. DKSC Pre- Esquivel — we 0–13; they 1–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Dallas Texans Pre- Ott score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Dallas Texans Pre- Ott concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–6 at Sting Pre- Blencoe, 0–8 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb, 0–7 vs DKSC Pre- Chavez Black, 0–13 vs DKSC Pre- Esquivel.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 0%; a draw (0%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Dallas Texans Pre- Ott have won 5 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Sting Pre- Kovacevic sit 9th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A win moves us above Sting Pre- Kovacevic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Pre- Ott game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna – Dallas Texans Pre- Ott) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	10th— holds	10th— holds	10th— holds
Win 0.50 PPG	10th— holds	10th— holds	10th— holds
Draw 0.17 PPG	10th— holds	10th— holds	10th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	10th— holds	10th— holds	10th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–7 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

10.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th <1%
10th 100%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.13 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott	2.67 (+2.67)	1st (2.55)	22 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sting Pre- Blencoe	2.29 (+2.29)	2nd (2.30)	19 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black	2.14 (+2.14)	3rd (2.05)	18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	DKSC Pre- Esquivel	1.86 (+1.86)	4th (1.98)	15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark	1.67 (+1.67)	5th (1.90)	14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN	1.29 (+1.29)	6th (1.34)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb	1.00 (+1.00)	7th (0.97)	8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
8	Alpha Forms Pre	0.86 (+0.86)	8th (0.80)	7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
9	Sting Pre- Kovacevic	0.50 (+0.50)	9th (0.69)	Win next game

How the results connect

22 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna to Dallas Texans Pre- Ott through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

22 favour them

-9.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.47 · 3rd hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +17	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–7	0.01	0.00	Upside
Sat Oct 31 09:30 AM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +8	Away Railroad Park	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–6	0.03	0.01	Upside
Sun Nov 1 08:00 AM	Sting Pre- Kovacevic 9th · 1-0-5 · GD -16	Home Railroad Park	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–4	0.47	0.06	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dallas Texans Pre- Ott

+17

2.67

WWWWW

+0.16

-1.26

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Chavez Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	2–2	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Blencoe

+13

2.29

WDWWL

+0.18

-0.74

97%

2.3

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	2–5
W	Thu Oct 22	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Alpha Forms Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	2–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Chavez Black

+20

2.14

WWWLW

-0.51

+2.01

71%

3.7

W	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	1–5
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ott See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	2–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Esquivel

+19

1.86

WLWLW

-0.30

-1.62

94%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	13–0
L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	7–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Kovacevic See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	5–1	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark

1.67

LLDWW

+0.39

-2.70

38%

4.6

W	Thu Oct 22	at	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	5–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	6–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN

-9

1.29

WLWLL

+0.80

-1.09

6.3

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	3–2	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb

-9

1.00

LLLWL

-0.32

+0.19

7.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	1–7
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	8–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	2–3	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alpha Forms Pre

-7

0.86

LLLLW

-0.33

+1.29

7.6

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	5–1
L	Thu Oct 22	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Blencoe See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	1–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Kovacevic

-16

0.50

LLWLL

+0.35

-1.24

8.9

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Esquivel · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	4–1	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna

-36

0.00

LLLLL

+0.66

+0.47

10.0

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (4th)	0–13
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (8th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ott · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Sun Nov 1 vs Sting Pre- Kovacevic See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (5th)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (9th)	1–4	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.67 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.