DKSC Pre- Esquivel

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Texas GU10 · 10 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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5th

3-1-2 record · 6 played

1.67 points per game

+6 goal diff · 16–10

DWLWLlast 5

59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2

+0.40 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:30 AM

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DKSC Pre- Esquivel
5th · 1.67 PPG

Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna
10th · 0.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 1B ↗

90%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.77 expected points)

Season so far	DKSC Pre- Esquivel	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna
Position	5th	10th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-2	0-0-4
Points per game	1.67	0.00
Goals for / game	2.7	0.3
Goals against / game	1.7	6.0
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	3
Form (recent first)	L W L W D	L L L L
Biggest win	7–1 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb	—
Worst loss	1–6 at DKSC Pre- Chavez Black	0–8 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.73	-3.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.40	+0.29

Common opponents: Alpha Forms Pre — we 3–0; they 1–3. DKSC Pre- Chavez Black — we 1–6; they 0–7. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb — we 7–1; they 0–8. Sting Pre- Blencoe — we 0–1; they 0–6.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna concede 6.0/game; worst result 0–8 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Sting Pre- Blencoe.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 08:30 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark sit 4th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.67.
A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC Pre- Esquivel – Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.86 PPG	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1
Win 1.86 PPG	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.57 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.43 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

59% top 4

41% below the top 4

4.2 average finish

1st
2nd 1%
3rd 22%
4th 36%
5th 39%
6th 2%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sting Pre- Blencoe	2.67 (+1.00)	1st (2.50)	12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott	2.60 (+0.93)	2nd (2.35)	11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black	2.00 (+0.33)	3rd (1.97)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
4	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark	1.67 (+0.00)	5th (1.90)	A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC Pre- Esquivel to Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+7.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -2.18 · 10th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:30 AM	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna 10th · 0-0-4 · GD -23	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.77	1.82	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 08:00 AM	Sting Pre- Kovacevic 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -12	Home Railroad Park	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.46	1.90	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sting Pre- Blencoe

+16

2.67

WWDWW

-0.18

+0.24

100%

1.5

W	Thu Oct 22	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ott · Sat Oct 31 vs Alpha Forms Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Ott

+14

2.60

DWWWW

-0.32

+0.11

98%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Blencoe · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Chavez Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Chavez Black

+18

2.00

WWWWL

-0.36

+0.57

73%

3.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	1–5
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Ott See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	4–1	75%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	2–2	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark

1.67

LLDWW

+0.39

-2.11

67%

4.0

W	Thu Oct 22	at	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	5–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	5–0	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Esquivel

1.67

DWLWL

+0.40

-2.18

59%

4.2

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	7–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Kovacevic See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN

-7

1.50

WWLWL

+0.44

+0.37

6.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre- Chavez Black · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	1–4	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb

-9

1.00

LLLWL

-0.26

+0.20

7.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	1–7
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	8–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	2–3	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Kovacevic

-12

0.60

LLLWL

+0.57

-1.22

7.6

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alpha Forms Pre · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Esquivel · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alpha Forms Pre

-11

0.50

WLLLL

-0.13

+0.22

8.7

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- GUZMAN (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Kovacevic · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Blencoe See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC Pre- NTX Penna

-23

0.00

LLLL

+0.29

+0.56

10.0

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	DKSC Pre- Chavez Black (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Webb (7th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting Pre- Blencoe (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Alpha Forms Pre (9th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre- Esquivel · Sun Oct 25 at Dallas Texans Pre- Ott · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- Esquivel (5th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Ott (2nd)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Stark (4th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting Pre- Kovacevic (8th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.