Sporting Iowa Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU12 · 10 teams · Sporting Iowa Central (all teams)

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6th

1-0-1 record · 2 played

1.50 points per game

+3 goal diff · 6–3

LWlast 2

22% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2

-1.98 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Sporting Iowa Pre- II
6th · 1.50 PPG

AFA Fillies Pre
9th · 0.60 PPG

HyVee Multiplex, Purple 1A ↗

75% 13% 12%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.5 for, 1.5 against · 2.38 expected points)

Season so far	Sporting Iowa Pre- II	AFA Fillies Pre
Position	6th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-1	1-0-4
Points per game	1.50	0.60
Goals for / game	3.0	1.4
Goals against / game	1.5	4.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L	L L L W L
Biggest win	5–1 vs Toca Fusion Premier Pre	3–2 at Toca Fusion Premier Pre
Worst loss	1–2 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II	1–7 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.27	-1.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.98	-0.24

Common opponents: Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II — we 1–2; they 1–7. Toca Fusion Premier Pre — we 5–1; they 3–2.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
AFA Fillies Pre concede 4.0/game; worst result 1–7 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
AFA Fillies Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
What a win does
Missouri Rush Pre- White sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Missouri Rush Pre- White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AFA Fillies Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Iowa Pre- II – AFA Fillies Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	3rd▲ up 3	3rd▲ up 3	4th▲ up 2
Win 2.00 PPG	3rd▲ up 3	3rd▲ up 3	4th▲ up 2
Draw 1.33 PPG	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2
Loss 1.00 PPG	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2	9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

22% top 4

78% below the top 4

6.2 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 4%
3rd 7%
4th 11%
5th 10%
6th 15%
7th 18%
8th 32%
9th 2%
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre	3.00 (+1.50)	1st (2.72)	24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II	2.00 (+0.50)	2nd (2.00)	Win next game
3	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal	1.75 (+0.25)	3rd (1.74)	A point next game
4	SLSG IL Academy II Pre	1.67 (+0.17)	5th (1.58)	A point next game
5	Missouri Rush Pre- White	1.50 (+0.00)	8th (1.37)	A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting Iowa Pre- II to AFA Fillies Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

2 favour them

+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.59 · 3rd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	AFA Fillies Pre 9th · 1-0-4 · GD -13	Home HyVee Multiplex	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	3–1	2.38	1.79	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 06:30 PM	SLSG IL Academy II Pre 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +6	Home HyVee Multiplex	●●●●○ Tough	40%	2–2	1.39	1.69	Upside
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +13	Home HyVee Multiplex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–2	1.18	1.59	Upside
Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM	Missouri Rush Pre- White 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +6	Home HyVee Multiplex	●●●●○ Tough	41%	2–2	1.42	1.56	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II 7th · 2-1-2 · GD +6	Away	●●●●○ Tough	30%	2–2	1.09	1.49	Upside
Sat Nov 14 TBD	SLSG Green Academy II Pre 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +6	Home	●●●●○ Tough	40%	2–2	1.39	1.48	Upside
Sat Nov 14 TBD	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19	Home	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.62	1.39	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SLSG Navy Academy II Pre

+19

3.00

WWWWW

-0.33

-0.02

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SLSG IL Academy II Pre (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs SLSG Green Academy II Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre- II · Sat Nov 21 at Missouri Rush Pre- White See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SLSG Green Academy II Pre (8th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- II (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Missouri Rush Pre- White (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AFA Fillies Pre (9th)	4–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II

+10

2.00

DDDWW

-0.05

—

100%

2.2

Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal

+13

1.75

DDWLW

-0.11

+0.27

72%

3.9

W	Tue Oct 20	at	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	9–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG Green Academy II Pre (8th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG IL Academy II Pre (4th)	2–2
D	Mon Sep 28	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	AFA Fillies Pre (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- White (5th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II (7th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa Pre- II See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- II (6th)	2–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLSG IL Academy II Pre

1.67

LWWDL

-0.16

+0.51

34%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	2–4
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- White (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AFA Fillies Pre (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 vs SLSG Green Academy II Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- II (6th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II (7th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SLSG Green Academy II Pre (8th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Missouri Rush Pre- White

1.50

LLWLW

-0.46

+1.04

12%

6.4

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AFA Fillies Pre (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SLSG IL Academy II Pre (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SLSG Green Academy II Pre (8th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa Pre- II · Sat Nov 21 vs SLSG Navy Academy II Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- II (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre (1st)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Pre- II

1.50

-1.98

+0.59

22%

6.2

W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	5–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AFA Fillies Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy II Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AFA Fillies Pre (9th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLSG IL Academy II Pre (4th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal (3rd)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- White (5th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II (7th)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Green Academy II Pre (8th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre (1st)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II

1.40

WWDLL

+0.22

-0.04

45%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Green Academy II Pre (8th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	5–5
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	8–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 vs AFA Fillies Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs SLSG IL Academy II Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- White (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AFA Fillies Pre (9th)	4–1	81%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SLSG IL Academy II Pre (4th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre- II (6th)	2–2	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLSG Green Academy II Pre

1.40

DWLLW

-0.20

+0.38

15%

6.2

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Missouri Rush Pre- White (5th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	7–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 at SLSG Navy Academy II Pre · Sun Nov 8 at SLSG IL Academy II Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre- II See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SLSG IL Academy II Pre (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- II (6th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AFA Fillies Pre (9th)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AFA Fillies Pre

-13

0.60

LWLLL

-0.24

+0.94

9.0

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Missouri Rush Pre- White (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SLSG IL Academy II Pre (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal (3rd)	1–5
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Premier Pre (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II (2nd)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II · Sat Nov 21 vs SLSG Green Academy II Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- II (6th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II (7th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLSG Green Academy II Pre (8th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SLSG Navy Academy II Pre (1st)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Toca Fusion Premier Pre

-56

0.00

LLLLL

+0.63

—

10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.