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Missouri Rush Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU12 · 10 teams · Missouri Rush (all teams)

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5th
3-0-3 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
+6 goal diff · 16–10
LLWLWlast 5
12% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4
-0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Missouri Rush Pre- White
5th · 1.50 PPG
at
Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II
7th · 1.40 PPG

HyVee Multiplex, Purple 2A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.5 against · 1.23 expected points)

Season so farMissouri Rush Pre- WhiteGretna Elite Academy Pre- II
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-32-1-2
Points per game1.501.40
Goals for / game2.73.4
Goals against / game1.72.2
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W L W L LL L D W W
Biggest win8–0 at Toca Fusion Premier Pre8–0 vs Toca Fusion Premier Pre
Worst loss0–2 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II0–2 vs SLSG Navy Academy II Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.51+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.46+0.22

Common opponents: Toca Fusion Premier Pre — we 8–0; they 8–0. Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal — we 2–3; they 3–1. Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II — we 0–2; they 5–5. SLSG Green Academy II Pre — we 3–2; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II, 0–1 at SLSG IL Academy II Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at HyVee Multiplex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    SLSG IL Academy II Pre sit 4th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above SLSG IL Academy II Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush Pre- White – Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.43 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2
Win
1.71 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.43 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.29 PPG		 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
12% top 4
88% below the top 4
6.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 29%
  8. 8th 26%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SLSG Navy Academy II Pre 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.72) 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II 2.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.00) 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
3 Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal 1.75 (+0.25) 3rd (1.74) 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
4 SLSG IL Academy II Pre 1.67 (+0.17) 5th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Missouri Rush Pre- White to Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
6 even
15 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–0 0–8 0–2 5–5 3–2 3–1 2–3 1–3 7–0 3–3 0–10 2–0 1–2 9–0 0–1 2–4 3–3 Missouri Rush Pre- … 5th Toca Fusion Premier… 10th Sporting Blue Valle… 2nd SLSG Green Academy … 8th Kansas City Athleti… 3rd SLSG IL Academy II … 4th SLSG Navy Academy I… 1st Gretna Elite Academ… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 20

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.04 · 1st hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM		 Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II
7th · 2-1-2 · GD +6		 Away far trip
HyVee Multiplex		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–2 1.23 1.46 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM		 Sporting Iowa Pre- II
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
HyVee Multiplex		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.38 1.45 Upside
Sat Nov 21
10:30 AM		 SLSG Navy Academy II Pre
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19		 Home
Missouri Rush Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.73 1.37 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SLSG Navy Academy II Pre 5500 223+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.33 -0.02 100% 1.0
2 Sporting Blue Valley Pre- II 9531 3020+10 182.00 DDDWW -0.05 — 100% 2.2
3 Kansas City Athletics Pre- Royal 8422 2714+13 141.75 DDWLW -0.11 +0.27 71% 4.0
4 SLSG IL Academy II Pre 6312 1610+6 101.67 LWWDL -0.16 +0.51 31% 5.3
5 Missouri Rush Pre- White 6303 1610+6 91.50 LLWLW -0.46 +1.04 12% 6.4
6 Sporting Iowa Pre- II 2101 63+3 31.50 LW -1.98 +0.59 24% 6.1
7 Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II 5212 1711+6 71.40 WWDLL +0.22 -0.04 46% 4.8
8 SLSG Green Academy II Pre 5212 1610+6 71.40 DWLLW -0.20 +0.38 16% 6.2
9 AFA Fillies Pre 5104 720-13 30.60 LWLLL -0.24 +0.94 0% 8.9
10 Toca Fusion Premier Pre 9009 460-56 00.00 LLLLL +0.63 — 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.