Sporting Blue Valley Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU12 · 10 teams · Sporting Blue Valley (all teams)
Next game — Mon Oct 19, 07:30 PM
Paragon Star Soccer Complex, Field 9 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.1 against · 2.62 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting Blue Valley Pre | Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-1 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per game | 2.63 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 4.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W L L L L |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs FC United (Iowa) Pre | 6–1 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre | 2–6 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.47 | -0.58 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.30 | -0.20 |
Common opponents: Missouri Rush Pre- Blue — we 4–2; they 0–2. SLSG Navy Academy I Pre — we 0–4; they 0–2. SLSG Green Academy I Pre — we 5–1; they 0–1. Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I — we 2–1; they 2–6. SLSG IL Academy I Pre — we 5–0; they 0–1. Toca Fusion Elite Pre — we 8–0; they 6–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 07:30 PM at Paragon Star Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Monday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Blue Valley Pre – Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.44 PPG |
2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 44%
- 2nd 56%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SLSG Navy Academy I Pre | 3.00 (+0.37) | 1st (2.71) | 6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
28 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting Blue Valley Pre to Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.58 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 19 07:30 PM no score posted |
Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy 9th · 1-0-5 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.62 | 2.62 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SLSG Navy Academy I Pre | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.26 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sporting Blue Valley Pre | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 8 | +29 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWW | -0.30 | -0.58 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Oct 19 at Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting Iowa Pre- I | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.80 | +0.19 | 69% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | +0.48 | -0.63 | 87% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Pre- I See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SLSG Green Academy I Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | +0.11 | -0.21 | 32% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre · Sun Nov 8 at SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -0.36 | +0.41 | 12% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 37 | -31 | 6 | 0.67 | LWLLL | +0.32 | — | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 8 | SLSG IL Academy I Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.29 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | -0.20 | +0.45 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Oct 19 vs Sporting Blue Valley Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC United (Iowa) Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.31 | +0.19 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy · Sun Oct 25 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.