SLSG Navy Academy I Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Heartland GU12 · 10 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)

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1st

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+15 goal diff · 16–1

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 08:00 AM

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SLSG Navy Academy I Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

SLSG Green Academy I Pre
5th · 1.80 PPG

WWT Soccer Park, Field 5 ↗

71% 17% 12%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.30 expected points)

Season so far	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre	SLSG Green Academy I Pre
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	3-0-2
Points per game	3.00	1.80
Goals for / game	3.2	2.2
Goals against / game	0.2	1.6
Clean sheets	4	2
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L W W L W
Biggest win	4–0 vs Sporting Blue Valley Pre	5–0 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre
Worst loss	—	1–5 vs Sporting Blue Valley Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.76	+0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.26	+0.11

Common opponents: Sporting Blue Valley Pre — we 4–0; they 1–5. Toca Fusion Elite Pre — we 4–1; they 5–0. Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I — we 2–0; they 0–2. Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy — we 2–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SLSG Green Academy I Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SLSG Navy Academy I Pre – SLSG Green Academy I Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

55% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 55%
2nd 39%
3rd 5%
4th 1%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SLSG Navy Academy I Pre to SLSG Green Academy I Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

2 even

7 favour them

+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 6th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM	SLSG Green Academy I Pre 5th · 3-0-2 · GD +3	Home WWT Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.30	2.88	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 TBD	Sporting Iowa Pre- I 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.94	2.75	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 TBD	FC United (Iowa) Pre 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -14	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	4–0	2.84	2.76	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +1	Away far trip Missouri Rush Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.27	2.71	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SLSG Navy Academy I Pre

+15

3.00

WWWWW

-0.26

-0.16

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs SLSG Green Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Blue Valley Pre

+29

2.63

WWWWW

-0.30

-0.58

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	8–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	4–0

Next: Mon Oct 19 at Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Oct 19 (no score yet)	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	3–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Pre- I

2.00

LWW

-0.80

+0.19

68%

4.1

W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	5–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I

1.80

WWLLW

+0.48

-0.63

89%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	6–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Pre- I See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	3–0	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SLSG Green Academy I Pre

1.80

WLWWL

+0.11

-0.21

31%

4.8

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	5–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at SLSG Navy Academy I Pre · Sun Nov 8 at SLSG IL Academy I Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Missouri Rush Pre- Blue

1.80

WWLLW

-0.36

+0.41

13%

5.5

W	Sat Oct 3	at	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	1–3	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Toca Fusion Elite Pre

-31

0.67

LWLLL

+0.32

—

8.5

SLSG IL Academy I Pre

-13

0.60

LLLWL

+0.29

+0.07

8.4

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sun Oct 25 at FC United (Iowa) Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy

-5

0.50

LLLLW

-0.20

+0.45

7.7

W	Tue Oct 20	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	6–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	2–6

Next: Mon Oct 19 vs Sporting Blue Valley Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC United (Iowa) Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa Pre- I See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Oct 19 (no score yet)	vs	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC United (Iowa) Pre (10th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	1–3	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC United (Iowa) Pre

-14

0.00

LLL

+0.31

+0.19

9.4

L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Blue Valley Pre (2nd)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Toca Fusion Elite Pre (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting Iowa Pre- I (3rd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy · Sun Oct 25 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs SLSG IL Academy I Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kansas City Athletics Pre- Navy (9th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Missouri Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SLSG IL Academy I Pre (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Navy Academy I Pre (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SLSG Green Academy I Pre (5th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.