Michigan Burn Pre- Black
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU12 · 13 teams · Michigan Burn (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 05:00 PM
Schoolcraft Dome, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.8 against · 1.90 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Burn Pre- Black | Michigan Hawks Magic PRE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W L | D L L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green | 2–1 vs Legends FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY | 1–3 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.80 | -0.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.09 | +0.50 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY — we 0–1; they 0–0. Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED — we 1–1; they 0–1. Legends FC Pre — we 3–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 26% / loss 19%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Schoolcraft Dome.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Michigan Hawks Magic PRE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Burn Pre- Black – Michigan Hawks Magic PRE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 34%
- 4th 37%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 2%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle | 2.71 (+0.71) | 1st (2.65) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman | 2.67 (+0.67) | 2nd (2.64) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 2.33 (+0.33) | 3rd (2.02) | 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Burn Pre- Black to Michigan Hawks Magic PRE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
20 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 7th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 01:30 PM no score posted |
Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 10th · 2-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home The Sports Academy |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.37 | 2.06 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 05:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks Magic PRE 11th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Schoolcraft Dome |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–0 | 1.90 | 2.04 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +9 |
Home The Sports Academy |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.96 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 5 | +21 | 19 | 2.71 | WWDWW | -0.10 | -0.24 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Nov 6 at Michigan Hawks Magic PRE See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWW | +0.01 | -0.24 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Hawks Magic PRE See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 7 | 2.33 | WD | -0.82 | +0.15 | 71% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED · Sat Oct 24 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Hawks PRE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Michigan Burn Pre- Black | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 10 | 2.00 | LWDWW | +0.09 | +0.01 | 73% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Hawks Magic PRE · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Hawks PRE | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.04 | +0.54 | 29% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 14 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 | 1.63 | WWLLL | +0.35 | -0.31 | 9% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED · Sat Apr 10 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 | 1.57 | WDLLW | +0.19 | +0.43 | 9% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWWW | +0.52 | -0.22 | 2% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Fri Oct 30 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sun Apr 4 vs Michigan Hawks Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Michigan Rangers FC Pre | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LDW | +0.29 | -0.57 | 5% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks Magic PRE · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sun Apr 25 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLW | -0.30 | +0.39 | 0% | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Michigan Burn Pre- Black · Sun Apr 18 at Legends FC Pre · Sat May 22 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Michigan Hawks Magic PRE | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | +0.50 | +0.58 | 1% | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman · Fri Nov 6 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC Pre | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLLL | +0.64 | +0.16 | 1% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Hawks PRE · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED · Sun Apr 18 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.05 | -0.52 | 0% | 13.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 30 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.