Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- GMA GU12 · 13 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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13th

0-0-3 record · 3 played

0.00 points per game

-8 goal diff · 0–8

LLLlast 3

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.6

+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 07:30 PM

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Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White
13th · 0.00 PPG

Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE
12th · 0.75 PPG

Capital Sportsplex Lansing, 9 x 9 ↗ far trip

22% 22% 57%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.0 against · 0.86 expected points)

Season so far	Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE
Position	13th	12th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-3	1-0-3
Points per game	0.00	0.75
Goals for / game	0.0	1.0
Goals against / game	2.7	3.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	3	1
Form (recent first)	L L L	L W L
Biggest win	—	3–2 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED
Worst loss	0–3 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE	0–5 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.32	-0.98
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.43	+0.20

Common opponents: Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED — we 0–2; they 3–2.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–5 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE, 0–3 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY, 0–2 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 07:30 PM at Capital Sportsplex Lansing.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE sit 12th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A win moves us above Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White – Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.25 PPG	13th— holds	13th— holds	13th— holds
Win 0.75 PPG	12th▲ up 1	12th▲ up 1	12th▲ up 1
Draw 0.25 PPG	13th— holds	13th— holds	13th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	13th— holds	13th— holds	13th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 13th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

12.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th <1%
7th <1%
8th <1%
9th 1%
10th 3%
11th 5%
12th 13%
13th 79%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle	2.67 (+2.67)	2nd (2.52)	17 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman	2.67 (+2.67)	1st (2.64)	17 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE	2.33 (+2.33)	3rd (2.04)	14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Michigan Burn Pre- Black	2.00 (+2.00)	4th (1.98)	12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Michigan Hawks PRE	2.00 (+2.00)	6th (1.62)	12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY	1.86 (+1.86)	5th (1.70)	12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED	1.57 (+1.57)	7th (1.44)	10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
8	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green	1.29 (+1.29)	9th (1.21)	8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
9	Michigan Rangers FC Pre	1.20 (+1.20)	8th (1.41)	8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
10	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE	1.00 (+1.00)	11th (0.98)	6 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
11	Legends FC Pre	0.86 (+0.86)	10th (1.20)	6 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
12	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE	0.75 (+0.75)	12th (0.82)	Win next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White to Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

2 favour them

-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

19 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.69 · 13th hardest of 13

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Oct 23 07:30 PM	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -10	Away far trip Capital Sportsplex Lansing	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.86	0.22	Upside
Fri Oct 30 06:45 PM	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green 8th · 3-0-4 · GD -6	Away UWM Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.77	0.33	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:30 PM	Michigan Rangers FC Pre 9th · 1-3-1 · GD -1	Away far trip 28th Ave	●●●●● Very tough	13%	0–1	0.65	0.38	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle

+17

2.67

WWWDW

-0.09

-0.05

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Legends FC Pre (11th)	1–0
D	Fri Sep 18	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	1–1
W	Thu Sep 10	vs	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	5–2
W	Mon Sep 7	vs	Michigan Hawks Pre (—)	8–1
W	Fri Sep 4	at	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	3–1

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY · Fri Nov 6 at Michigan Hawks Magic PRE See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	2–0	61%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	1–0	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman

+16

2.67

WWWW

+0.02

-0.24

100%

1.5

W	Fri Oct 16	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Legends FC Pre (11th)	4–3
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE (12th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Hawks Magic PRE See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	2–0	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE

2.33

-0.68

+0.14

69%

4.1

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	0–0
W	Thu Sep 17	at	Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White (13th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED · Sat Oct 24 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Hawks PRE See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	2–1	76%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Michigan Hawks PRE (5th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Michigan Burn Pre White (—)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Burn Pre- Black

2.00

LWDWW

+0.13

-0.11

70%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Legends FC Pre (11th)	3–1
W	Fri Oct 9	at	Michigan Hawks PRE (5th)	3–0
D	Fri Oct 2	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Hawks Magic PRE · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE (12th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE (3rd)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Hawks PRE

2.00

WWL

+0.01

+0.53

26%

6.3

L	Fri Oct 9	vs	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Michigan Burn Pre White (—)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Nov 14 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC Pre (11th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 8	at	Legends FC Pre (11th)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY

1.86

DWWLL

+0.14

+0.16

22%

5.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Michigan Burn Pre White (—)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 2	vs	Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White (13th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	1–0

Next: Fri Oct 23 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle · Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED · Sat Apr 10 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle (1st)	0–2	18%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED

1.57

WDLLW

+0.14

+0.52

7.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White (13th)	2–0
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE (12th)	2–3
D	Fri Oct 2	vs	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	2–0
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle (1st)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 11	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE (3rd)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Legends FC Pre (11th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Michigan Hawks PRE (5th)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green

-6

1.29

LLWWW

+0.36

-0.10

9.1

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE (12th)	2–1
W	Fri Oct 9	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL (—)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 14/15 PreECNL GMA (—)	6–1
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	0–3
L	Thu Sep 10	at	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle (1st)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Michigan Hawks PRE (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 8	vs	Legends FC Pre (11th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE · Fri Oct 30 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sun Apr 4 vs Michigan Hawks Pre See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE (3rd)	1–2	10%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White (13th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Michigan Hawks Pre (—)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Rangers FC Pre

-1

1.20

LDW

+0.44

-0.62

7.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks Magic PRE · Sat Nov 7 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sun Apr 25 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	0–0	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White (13th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Legends FC Pre (11th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE (12th)	1–0	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Hawks Magic PRE

-2

1.00

WLLD

+0.51

+0.52

10.5

D	Sun Sep 13	at	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	0–0
L	Fri Sep 11	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	0–1
L	Fri Sep 4	vs	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Legends FC Pre (11th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Rangers FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman · Fri Nov 6 vs Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	0–0	34%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC Pre

+10

0.86

LWLLL

+0.56

+0.08

9.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Lavelle (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cap City Athletic 1847 Pre (—)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C Pre BL (—)	13–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Michigan Hawks Magic PRE (10th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman (2nd)	3–4
W	Sat Aug 8	at	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Hawks PRE · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED · Sun Apr 18 vs Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Michigan Hawks PRE (5th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE (12th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Michigan Hawks PRE (5th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat May 15	at	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE

-10

0.75

LWL

+0.20

-0.04

11.4

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Nationals SC Macomb Pre- BLUE Rodman (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Michigan Burn Pre- Black · Fri Oct 23 vs Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White · Sun Apr 18 at Legends FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Michigan Burn Pre- Black (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White (13th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Legends FC Pre (11th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat May 22	at	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC-IA MI Central Pre ECNL2014/15 G White

-8

0.00

LLL

+0.43

-0.69

12.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan C PreECNL RED (7th)	0–2
L	Fri Oct 2	at	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- GRAY (6th)	0–3
L	Thu Sep 17	vs	Nationals SC Oakland Pre- BLUE (3rd)	0–3

Next: Fri Oct 23 at Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE · Fri Oct 30 at Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green · Sat Nov 7 at Michigan Rangers FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	Nationals SC-CA PreECNL BLUE (12th)	1–1	22%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Royal Oak FC Pre GMA Green (8th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Michigan Rangers FC Pre (9th)	0–1	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.