Tampa Bay United Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Florida GU12 · 8 teams · Tampa Bay United (all teams)

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3rd

2-2-1 record · 5 played

1.60 points per game

+6 goal diff · 12–6

DLDWWlast 5

95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3

-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM

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Tampa Bay United Pre
3rd · 1.60 PPG

Sporting SA JAX Pre
5th · 1.33 PPG

Monroe Middle School - TBU South, Field 2 ↗

62% 18% 20%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.5 against · 2.03 expected points)

Season so far	Tampa Bay United Pre	Sporting SA JAX Pre
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-1	1-1-1
Points per game	1.60	1.33
Goals for / game	2.4	2.0
Goals against / game	1.2	2.3
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	W W D L D	L D W
Biggest win	6–0 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2	4–0 vs Florida Tropics Academy Pre
Worst loss	0–3 vs Florida Premier FC PRE	0–5 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.64	-0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.30	+0.67

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 2–2 at Sporting SA JAX Pre (D)

Common opponents: Florida Tropics Academy Pre — we 4–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Florida Premier FC PRE, 0–0 vs Jacksonville FC Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 62% / draw 18% / loss 20%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA JAX Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tampa Bay United Pre – Sporting SA JAX Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.83 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.83 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.50 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2
Loss 1.33 PPG	5th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

95% top 4

5% below the top 4

3.3 average finish

1st
2nd 1%
3rd 73%
4th 21%
5th 4%
6th 1%
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Florida Kraze Krush Pre	3.00 (+1.40)	1st (2.59)	34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Florida Premier FC PRE	2.50 (+0.90)	2nd (2.51)	27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Tampa Bay United Pre to Sporting SA JAX Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

2 even

2 favour them

+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 3rd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Sporting SA JAX Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD -1	Home Monroe Middle School - TBU South	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.03	1.67	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM	Florida Kraze Krush Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15	Home Ed Radice Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	1.56	Upside
Sun Dec 13 10:00 AM	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7	Away far trip Lakewood Ranch Park	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–0	2.34	1.66	Bank it
Sat Jan 23 01:00 PM	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7	Home Ed Radice Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–0	2.53	1.75	Bank it
Sat Feb 27 12:30 PM	Jacksonville FC Pre 6th · 1-2-3 · GD -8	Away far trip Patton Park	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	2–1	2.02	1.78	Swing game
Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -20	Away far trip Veterans Park	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–0	2.60	1.86	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 10:30 AM	Florida Tropics Academy Pre 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -4	Away far trip John McGee Park	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	2–1	2.03	1.87	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM	Florida Kraze Krush Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15	Away far trip Central Winds	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.67	1.78	Upside
Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM	Florida Premier FC PRE 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +19	Away far trip Starkey Ranch District Park	●●●●● Very tough	12%	0–2	0.53	1.69	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Florida Kraze Krush Pre

+15

3.00

WWWWW

-0.37

-0.22

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Dec 12 at Tampa Bay United Pre · Sun Dec 13 at Florida Tropics Academy Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	3–0	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Premier FC PRE

+19

2.50

WWLWW

-0.47

-0.21

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	5–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 5 at Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sun Jan 10 vs Florida Tropics Academy Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tampa Bay United Pre

1.60

DLDWW

-0.30

-0.04

95%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	2–2

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre · Sun Dec 13 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Tropics Academy Pre

-4

1.40

LWWDL

-0.78

+0.54

12%

5.6

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	1–4
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	0–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sun Dec 13 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	1–1	55%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX Pre

-1

1.33

WDL

+0.67

-0.17

71%

4.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	4–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Jacksonville FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Florida Tropics Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Tampa Bay United Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Fri Apr 2	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	3–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Jacksonville FC Pre

-8

0.83

LDDLW

+0.71

-0.45

20%

5.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Jan 30 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Fri Apr 2	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SWFL PREMIER FC PRE

-7

0.00

+0.49

+0.08

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Florida Premier FC PRE · Sun Dec 6 at Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 (8th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2

-20

0.00

LLLLL

+0.87

-0.21

7.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Tropics Academy Pre (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Premier FC PRE (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 17 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Oct 31 vs Jacksonville FC Pre · Sat Jan 9 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	1–1	20%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	SWFL PREMIER FC PRE (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Tampa Bay United Pre (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Jacksonville FC Pre (6th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Florida Kraze Krush Pre (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sporting SA JAX Pre (5th)	0–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.