Florida Premier FC PRE
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Florida GU12 · 8 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 5 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 0.6 against · 2.78 expected points)
| Season so far | Florida Premier FC PRE | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-1 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W W | L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre | 0–4 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.00 | -1.26 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.47 | +0.49 |
Common opponents: Jacksonville FC Pre — we 3–0, 5–0; they 0–3. Florida Kraze Krush Pre — we 1–2; they 0–4.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–4 at Florida Kraze Krush Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Lakewood Ranch Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SWFL PREMIER FC PRE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC PRE – SWFL PREMIER FC PRE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.57 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.57 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.29 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.14 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 44%
- 2nd 56%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Kraze Krush Pre | 3.00 (+0.50) | 1st (2.59) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
9 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC PRE to SWFL PREMIER FC PRE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.21 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.78 | 2.54 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM |
Sporting SA JAX Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Losco Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–0 | 2.50 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 10 11:00 AM |
Florida Tropics Academy Pre 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 12:30 PM |
Florida Tropics Academy Pre 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
John McGee Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.62 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 11:30 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.86 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.74 | 2.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Sporting SA JAX Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.66 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Tampa Bay United Pre 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +6 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.31 | 2.51 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Florida Kraze Krush Pre | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.37 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 at Tampa Bay United Pre · Sun Dec 13 at Florida Tropics Academy Pre · Sat Mar 6 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Florida Premier FC PRE | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.47 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 5 at Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sun Jan 10 vs Florida Tropics Academy Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Tampa Bay United Pre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 8 | 1.60 | DLDWW | -0.30 | -0.04 | 95% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre · Sun Dec 13 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Tropics Academy Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 | 1.40 | LWWDL | -0.78 | +0.54 | 12% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sun Dec 13 vs Florida Kraze Krush Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting SA JAX Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | +0.67 | -0.17 | 71% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Jacksonville FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Florida Tropics Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Tampa Bay United Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Jacksonville FC Pre | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 | 0.83 | LDDLW | +0.71 | -0.45 | 20% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA JAX Pre · Sat Jan 30 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.49 | +0.08 | 2% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Florida Premier FC PRE · Sun Dec 6 at Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting SA JAX Pre- 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.87 | -0.21 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Oct 31 vs Jacksonville FC Pre · Sat Jan 9 vs Sporting SA JAX Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.