Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 9 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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3rd

3-2-1 record · 6 played

1.83 points per game

+1 goal diff · 13–12

DWDWWlast 5

56% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2

+0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A
3rd · 1.83 PPG

Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL
4th · 1.71 PPG

Westcreek, Field 3E ↗

24% 17% 59%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.9 against · 0.88 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-1	4-0-3
Points per game	1.83	1.71
Goals for / game	2.2	2.4
Goals against / game	2.0	1.9
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W D W D	L W W W W
Biggest win	5–0 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red	7–1 at FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North
Worst loss	0–8 at Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue	0–3 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.05	+0.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.62	+0.60

Common opponents: Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue — we 0–8; they 1–2. Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C — we 2–2; they 2–1. Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B — we 2–2; they 0–3.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 at Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Westcreek.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B sit 2nd on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.83.
A point moves us above Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A – Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.57 PPG	6th▼ down 3	6th▼ down 3	7th▼ down 4
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Draw 1.71 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2
Loss 1.57 PPG	6th▼ down 3	6th▼ down 3	7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

56% top 4

44% below the top 4

4.2 average finish

1st
2nd 16%
3rd 18%
4th 23%
5th 21%
6th 15%
7th 5%
8th 1%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.30 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue	3.00 (+1.17)	1st (2.85)	19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B	1.86 (+0.03)	3rd (1.76)	A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A to Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

4 favour them

-0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL 4th · 4-0-3 · GD +4	Away Westcreek	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.88	1.70	Upside
Sun Nov 1 04:00 PM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North 6th · 2-2-1 · GD +3	Away St Francis School	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–3	1.34	1.65	Upside
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +2	Home Westcreek	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–1	1.57	1.64	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold 9th · 1-2-4 · GD -11	Away The Lions Club	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.74	1.65	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue

+31

3.00

WWWWW

-0.34

+0.12

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (—)	13–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B · Fri Nov 6 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B · Fri Nov 13 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	3–0	89%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	2–1	66%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B

+11

1.86

DWDWD

-0.16

+0.69

89%

3.2

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (—)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (—)	6–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–2
W	Fri Oct 9	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	2–0
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	3–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold · Fri Oct 30 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C · Fri Nov 6 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A

1.83

DWDWW

+0.62

-0.12

56%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (—)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (—)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	2–2
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	2–3	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL

1.71

WWWWL

+0.60

-0.58

92%

2.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (—)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	7–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B

1.67

LLDWW

+0.14

+0.37

30%

5.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	2–2
L	Fri Oct 9	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 at Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North

1.60

DLWWD

+0.17

+0.34

27%

5.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	5–5
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (—)	10–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–7
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	3–2	44%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	2–2	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red

-6

1.17

DLLWW

+0.77

+0.07

7.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (—)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	0–5
L	Fri Sep 25	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	0–5
D	Fri Sep 18	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	1–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C

1.00

DDLWD

-0.04

+0.57

6.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (—)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North · Fri Oct 30 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Nov 14 at Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	2–2	52%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	1–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold

-11

0.71

LLDLL

+0.30

+0.42

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (—)	3–7
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (—)	0–4
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (5th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL North (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (1st)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red C (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B · Sun Nov 1 at Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.