RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 8 teams · RISE Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th

2-0-3 record · 5 played

1.20 points per game

-9 goal diff · 8–17

LLLWWlast 5

48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8

+0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM

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RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy
5th · 1.20 PPG

Imperial SC Pre- STXCL
2nd · 2.60 PPG

McGovern Park, Field 6 ↗

17% 20% 64%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.2 against · 0.70 expected points)

Season so far	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL
Position	5th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-3	4-1-0
Points per game	1.20	2.60
Goals for / game	1.6	2.0
Goals against / game	3.4	0.2
Clean sheets	1	4
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W L L L	D W W W W
Biggest win	4–0 at Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL	4–0 at Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	0–8 at MAFC Pre- STXCL	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.89	+0.87
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.81	-1.32

Common opponents: HTX NW Pre- STXCL — we 1–3; they 0–0. Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL — we 4–0; they 2–0, 4–0.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Imperial SC Pre- STXCL concede only 0.2/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 at MAFC Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
AHFC East Pre- STXCL sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.20.
A win moves us above AHFC East Pre- STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Imperial SC Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy – Imperial SC Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1
Win 1.50 PPG	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Draw 1.17 PPG	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

48% top 4

52% below the top 4

4.8 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 47%
5th 27%
6th 25%
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MAFC Pre- STXCL	3.00 (+1.80)	1st (2.98)	21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL	2.60 (+1.40)	2nd (2.41)	18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	HTX NW Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+0.80)	3rd (2.07)	12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	AHFC East Pre- STXCL	1.50 (+0.30)	5th (1.17)	Win next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy to Imperial SC Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.66 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 01:00 PM no score posted	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red	Home McGovern Park	●●●●○ Tough	31%	2–2	1.11	1.19	Upside
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +9	Home McGovern Park	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–2	0.70	1.12	Upside
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	Cavalry Pre- STXCL 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -33	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.30	1.26	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	AHFC East Pre- STXCL 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +0	Home Lindsay/Lyons Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–1	1.24	1.26	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MAFC Pre- STXCL

+65

3.00

WWWWW

-1.44

-0.12

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	15–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (8th)	13–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (7th)	19–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC East Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	8–1	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	6–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	5–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC Pre- STXCL

2.60

WWWWD

-1.32

-0.61

100%

2.0

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (8th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kaptiva Sports Academy TX Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs HTX W Pre- STCXL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	HTX W Pre- STCXL (—)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX NW Pre- STXCL

2.00

WWWDD

+0.16

-1.10

100%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	3–3
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (8th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (7th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC East Pre- STXCL

1.50

WLLW

-0.89

+2.40

32%

5.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC NW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

-9

1.20

LLLWW

+0.81

-0.66

48%

4.8

W	Wed Oct 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (7th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Cavalry Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (8th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC SW Pre- STXCL

-14

0.75

LWLL

+1.75

-0.93

20%

5.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–15
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC NW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Imperial SC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–2	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL

-21

0.50

LLLWL

+0.66

-0.19

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–19

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs HTX W Pre- STCXL · Sat Nov 7 at AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	2–4	18%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	HTX W Pre- STCXL (—)	2–4	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–3	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–4	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cavalry Pre- STXCL

-33

0.00

LLLLL

+1.07

-0.81

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX Pre- STXCL (—)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (7th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 21 at AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (—)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–4	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.