MAFC Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 8 teams · MAFC (all teams)

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1st

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+65 goal diff · 68–3

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-1.50 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM

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MAFC Pre- STXCL
1st · 3.00 PPG

AHFC East Pre- STXCL
4th · 1.50 PPG

Lindsay/Lyons Park, Field 21 ↗

97%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.94 expected points)

Season so far	MAFC Pre- STXCL	AHFC East Pre- STXCL
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	2-0-2
Points per game	3.00	1.50
Goals for / game	11.3	1.3
Goals against / game	0.5	1.3
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W L L W
Biggest win	19–1 at Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL	3–1 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	—	0–2 vs Imperial SC Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+6.45	-0.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.50	-0.77

Common opponents: HTX NW Pre- STXCL — we 5–1; they 0–1. Cavalry Pre- STXCL — we 13–0; they 3–1. AHFC SW Pre- STXCL — we 15–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
AHFC East Pre- STXCL average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 2 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Hard to break down
AHFC East Pre- STXCL concede only 1.2/game with 0 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 6–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AHFC East Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MAFC Pre- STXCL – AHFC East Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.57 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

99% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 99%
2nd 1%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

14 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link MAFC Pre- STXCL to AHFC East Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us

0 favour them

+10.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 2nd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 11:30 AM no score posted	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL	Home Dyess Park	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	8–1	2.96	2.99	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	AHFC East Pre- STXCL 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +0	Home Lindsay/Lyons Park	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–0	2.94	2.99	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	AHFC East Pre- STXCL 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +0	Away far trip Lindsay/Lyons Park	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	5–1	2.89	2.98	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MAFC Pre- STXCL

+65

3.00

WWWWW

-1.50

-0.12

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	15–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	13–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	19–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC East Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	8–1	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	6–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	5–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC Pre- STXCL

+12

2.67

WWWDW

-1.52

-0.80

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs HTX W Pre- STCXL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	HTX W Pre- STCXL (—)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX NW Pre- STXCL

2.00

WWWDD

+0.24

-1.43

100%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	3–3
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC East Pre- STXCL

1.50

WLLW

-0.77

+2.40

42%

4.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC NW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24 (no score yet)	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

-9

1.20

LLLWW

+0.63

-0.56

52%

4.7

W	Wed Oct 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Cavalry Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC SW Pre- STXCL

-15

0.60

LWLLL

+1.75

-1.23

5.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–15
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Imperial SC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–2	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cavalry Pre- STXCL

-31

0.43

LLLLW

+0.96

-1.19

7.2

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX Pre- STXCL (—)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 21 at AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–3	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL

-37

0.43

LLWLL

+0.76

-0.24

7.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	HTX W Pre- STCXL (—)	1–17
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–19

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at AHFC SW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at HTX NW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	2–4	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–4	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.