AHFC SW Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 8 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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6th

1-0-4 record · 5 played

0.60 points per game

-15 goal diff · 6–21

LWLLLlast 5

6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6

+1.75 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:30 AM

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AHFC SW Pre- STXCL
6th · 0.60 PPG

Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL
8th · 0.43 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 8 ↗

64% 14% 22%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.0 for, 2.6 against · 2.06 expected points)

Season so far	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL
Position	6th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-4	1-0-6
Points per game	0.60	0.43
Goals for / game	1.2	1.6
Goals against / game	4.2	6.9
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	3	3
Form (recent first)	L L L W L	L L W L L
Biggest win	5–1 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy	8–0 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	0–15 at MAFC Pre- STXCL	1–19 vs MAFC Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.49	-2.86
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.75	+0.76

Common opponents: RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy — we 5–1; they 0–4. MAFC Pre- STXCL — we 0–15; they 1–19.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL concede 6.9/game; worst result 1–19 vs MAFC Pre- STXCL.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs HTX NW Pre- STXCL, 0–15 at MAFC Pre- STXCL, 0–1 vs AHFC NW Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 14% / loss 22%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC SW Pre- STXCL – Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.00 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.00 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Draw 0.67 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 0.50 PPG	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

6% top 4

94% below the top 4

5.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 6%
5th 41%
6th 42%
7th 8%
8th 4%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MAFC Pre- STXCL	3.00 (+2.40)	1st (2.98)	24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL	2.67 (+2.07)	2nd (2.54)	22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	HTX NW Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+1.40)	3rd (2.08)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	AHFC East Pre- STXCL	1.50 (+0.90)	5th (1.17)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
5	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy	1.20 (+0.60)	4th (1.24)	8 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link AHFC SW Pre- STXCL to Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.23 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 11:30 AM	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -37	Home Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	4–2	2.06	0.84	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +12	Away Lost Creek Park	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.34	0.77	Upside
Sat Nov 21 11:30 AM	Cavalry Pre- STXCL 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -31	Home Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.28	0.96	Bank it
Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM	Dynamos Pre- STXCL	Home Burroughs Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	2–3	0.87	0.95	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MAFC Pre- STXCL

+65

3.00

WWWWW

-1.50

-0.12

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	15–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	13–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	19–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at AHFC East Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	8–1	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	6–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	5–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC Pre- STXCL

+12

2.67

WWWDW

-1.52

-0.80

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs HTX W Pre- STCXL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	HTX W Pre- STCXL (—)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX NW Pre- STXCL

2.00

WWWDD

+0.24

-1.43

100%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	3–3
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC East Pre- STXCL

1.50

WLLW

-0.77

+2.40

42%

4.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC NW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy

-9

1.20

LLLWW

+0.63

-0.56

53%

4.7

W	Wed Oct 21	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL White (—)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Cavalry Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC SW Pre- STXCL

-15

0.60

LWLLL

+1.75

-1.23

5.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–15
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Imperial SC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	4–2	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cavalry Pre- STXCL

-31

0.43

LLLLW

+0.96

-1.19

7.2

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kaptiva Sports Academy TX Pre- STXCL (—)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL (8th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy · Sat Nov 21 at AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	1–3	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC N Pre- STXCL

-37

0.43

LLWLL

+0.76

-0.24

7.7

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	HTX W Pre- STCXL (—)	1–17
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (5th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (7th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–19

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at AHFC SW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at HTX NW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	2–4	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–4	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.