TableChase Clubs

Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 6 teams · Mortega Soccer Club Laredo Youth Soccer Academy (all teams)

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5th
3-1-4 record · 8 played
1.25 points per game
-3 goal diff · 23–26
WWDLWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0
+0.57 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM

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Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL
5th · 1.25 PPG
vs
Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Westcreek, Field 3E ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.4 for, 3.3 against · 0.97 expected points)

Season so farRayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCLLonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A
Position5th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-44-2-1
Points per game1.252.00
Goals for / game2.93.0
Goals against / game3.32.3
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L D W WW D D W L
Biggest win5–0 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL6–3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt
Worst loss1–6 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red4–6 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.85+0.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.57+0.54

Common opponents: FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue — we 0–3; they 4–2. Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue — we 3–6; they 3–2. Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red — we 1–6; they 1–0. San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold — we 2–4; they 4–6.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL – Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.11 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
1.44 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.22 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.11 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
5.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 99%
  6. 6th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red 2.25 (+1.00) 1st (2.25) 11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold 2.25 (+1.00) 2nd (2.23) 11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A 2.00 (+0.75) 3rd (1.97) 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue 1.63 (+0.38) 4th (1.54) 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

14 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL to Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
11 favour them
-3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–4 6–4 3–6 2–3 0–3 2–4 1–6 0–1 4–2 5–3 4–0 7–1 5–4 Rayados Pflugervill… 5th San Antonio City SC… 2nd Barca Academy Austi… 6th FC Westlake Pre- ST… 4th Lonestar ATX NE Pre… 1st Lonestar ATX STH Pr… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 3rd 6th Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17 Oct 25

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.50 · 2nd hardest of 5

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM		 Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A
3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +5		 Home
Westcreek		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 2–3 0.97 1.22 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red 8602 3811+27 182.25 WWWWW -0.05 +0.26 100% 1.4
2 San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold 8602 3925+14 182.25 WWLWW +0.05 +0.00 100% 1.7
3 Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A 7421 2116+5 142.00 LWDDW +0.54 -0.43 100% 2.9
4 FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue 8413 3024+6 131.63 LDWWL +0.02 +0.75 99% 4.0
5 Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL 8314 2326-3 101.25 WWDLW +0.57 +0.50 1% 5.0
6 Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue 9315 2231-9 101.11 WLLDL +0.57 — 0% 6.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.