Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 6 teams · Barca Academy Austin (all teams)

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5th

3-1-4 record · 8 played

1.25 points per game

-3 goal diff · 21–24

LWLLDlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2

+0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue
5th · 1.25 PPG

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold
2nd · 2.14 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 7A ↗ far trip

24% 13% 63%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 3–4 (expected goals 3.0 for, 4.4 against · 0.85 expected points)

Season so far	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold
Position	5th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-4	5-0-2
Points per game	1.25	2.14
Goals for / game	2.6	4.6
Goals against / game	3.0	3.4
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	D L L W L	W L W W W
Biggest win	6–3 vs Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL	7–3 vs Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	0–4 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red	1–5 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.26	+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.37	+0.26

Common opponents: Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A — we 2–3; they 6–4. Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL — we 6–3; they 4–2. FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue — we 5–4; they 3–5. AHFC Pre- STXCL — we 1–3; they 1–5. Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL — we 2–1; they 7–3. Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red — we 0–4; they 4–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold score 4.6/game — well above the league's 3.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at ASP / CC.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue – San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.11 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.44 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.22 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.11 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–4 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

5.2 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 80%
6th 20%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.44 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red	2.25 (+1.00)	1st (2.25)	11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold	2.14 (+0.89)	2nd (2.10)	10 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A	2.00 (+0.75)	3rd (1.97)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue	1.63 (+0.38)	4th (1.54)	5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

12 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue to San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

7 favour them

-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.64 · 2nd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +8	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	24%	3–4	0.85	1.21	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red

+27

2.25

WWWWW

-0.05

+0.26

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (—)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	3–2	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold

2.14

WWWLW

+0.26

-0.13

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–5
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	7–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	6–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	3–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	4–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	4–3	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	4–3	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A

2.00

LWDDW

+0.54

-0.49

100%

2.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	4–2
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	6–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	4–6
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Nov 14 at Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–2	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue

1.63

LDWWL

-0.00

+0.76

99%

4.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	5–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	3–2	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	2–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue

-3

1.25

LWLLD

+0.37

+0.64

5.2

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	5–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	6–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	3–4	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL

-5

1.00

LWWDL

+0.56

+0.25

5.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	2–4
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–6
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–3	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.