Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 6 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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1st

6-0-2 record · 8 played

2.25 points per game

+27 goal diff · 38–11

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4

-0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 11:30 AM

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Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red
1st · 2.25 PPG

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue
4th · 1.63 PPG

The Lions Club, Field 1W ↗

69% 13% 17%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.1 against · 2.21 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-2	4-1-3
Points per game	2.25	1.63
Goals for / game	4.8	3.8
Goals against / game	1.4	3.0
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L W W D L
Biggest win	9–0 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL	4–0 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	2–4 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold	2–4 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.52	+0.26
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.05	-0.00

Common opponents: San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold — we 2–4; they 5–3. Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A — we 0–1; they 2–4. Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL — we 6–1; they 3–0. HTX N Pre- STXCL — we 4–1; they 4–0. SG1 Pre- STXCL — we 9–0; they 2–2. Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue — we 4–0; they 4–5.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 69% / draw 13% / loss 17%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red – FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.11 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

75% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.4 average finish

1st 75%
2nd 13%
3rd 12%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

12 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red to FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

3 favour them

+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 3rd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue 4th · 4-1-3 · GD +6	Home The Lions Club	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	3–2	2.21	2.25	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red

+27

2.25

WWWWW

-0.05

+0.26

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (—)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	3–2	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold

2.14

WWWLW

+0.26

-0.13

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–5
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	7–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	6–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	3–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	4–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	4–3	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	4–3	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A

2.00

LWDDW

+0.54

-0.49

100%

2.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	4–2
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	6–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	4–6
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Nov 14 at Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	3–2	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–2	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue

1.63

LDWWL

-0.00

+0.76

100%

4.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (—)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	5–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	3–2	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	2–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue

-3

1.25

LWLLD

+0.37

+0.64

5.2

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (—)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	5–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (6th)	6–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	3–4	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL

-5

1.00

LWWDL

+0.56

+0.25

5.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (2nd)	2–4
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (—)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (5th)	3–6
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–3	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.