Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 10 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM
Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex, field 6A ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.7 against · 0.41 expected points)
| Season so far | Lexington Sporting Academy Pre | FC Storm Premier 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L D | D W W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at Mercury Pre- 1 | 6–1 at Mercury Pre- 1 |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Columbus Force Pre | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.87 | +1.67 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.11 | -0.31 |
Common opponents: Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 2–2; they 6–2. Columbus Force Pre — we 0–5; they 5–1. Mercury Pre- 1 — we 4–1; they 6–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
FC Storm Premier 1 score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
FC Storm Premier 1 concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Columbus Force Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 10%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Total Futbol Academy Elite sit 7th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above Total Futbol Academy Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Storm Premier 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Academy Pre – FC Storm Premier 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 26%
- 8th 46%
- 9th 19%
- 10th 5%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.78 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City Academy Pre | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.66) | 23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Storm Premier 1 | 2.67 (+1.87) | 2nd (2.42) | 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White | 2.00 (+1.20) | 4th (1.85) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Lakota FC Pre- Black | 2.00 (+1.20) | 3rd (2.00) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | FC Pride Elite Pre | 1.57 (+0.77) | 5th (1.46) | 11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 6 | Columbus Force Pre | 1.33 (+0.53) | 6th (1.33) | 8 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 7 | Total Futbol Academy Elite | 1.00 (+0.20) | 7th (0.92) | A point next game |
How the results connect
25 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Lexington Sporting Academy Pre to FC Storm Premier 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
18 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.47 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
FC Storm Premier 1 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +17 |
Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.41 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Ohio Elite SA Pre 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -10 |
Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 0.89 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.85 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
Lakota FC Pre- Black 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Walter J Long Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 0.84 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Louisville City Academy Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.05 | -0.25 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Storm Premier 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWD | -0.31 | +0.42 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WWWLD | -0.13 | +0.48 | 91% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lakota FC Pre- Black | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWLW | +0.31 | -0.55 | 93% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Pride Elite Pre | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 11 | 1.57 | LWWWL | -0.31 | +1.19 | 15% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Columbus Force Pre | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 12 | 1.33 | LWLWL | -0.00 | — | 0% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Total Futbol Academy Elite | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 8 | 1.00 | LWDLL | -0.13 | +1.84 | 0% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lexington Sporting Academy Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 4 | 0.80 | DLLLW | -0.11 | +0.47 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Mercury Pre- 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 6 | 0.75 | LLLWL | +0.00 | +1.84 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Ohio Elite SA Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.00 | +0.56 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.