FC Pride Elite Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 10 teams · FC Pride (all teams)

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5th

3-2-2 record · 7 played

1.57 points per game

+4 goal diff · 20–16

LWWWLlast 5

15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1

-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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FC Pride Elite Pre
5th · 1.57 PPG

FC Storm Premier 1
2nd · 2.67 PPG

Lawrence Soccer Complex, Field #6 ↗

22% 17% 61%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.9 against · 0.83 expected points)

Season so far	FC Pride Elite Pre	FC Storm Premier 1
Position	5th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-2	5-1-0
Points per game	1.57	2.67
Goals for / game	2.9	3.8
Goals against / game	2.3	1.0
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L W W W L	D W W W W
Biggest win	5–1 vs Mercury Pre- 1	6–1 at Mercury Pre- 1
Worst loss	1–3 at Louisville City Academy Pre	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.30	+1.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.31	-0.31

Common opponents: Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 2–2; they 6–2. Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White — we 5–5; they 1–1. Columbus Force Pre — we 1–2; they 5–1. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 3–1; they 4–1. Mercury Pre- 1 — we 5–1; they 6–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
FC Storm Premier 1 score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.4.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
FC Storm Premier 1 concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Storm Premier 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Pride Elite Pre – FC Storm Premier 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.38 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Win 1.75 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.50 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.38 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

15% top 4

85% below the top 4

5.1 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 3%
4th 12%
5th 54%
6th 29%
7th 2%
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.89 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Louisville City Academy Pre	3.00 (+1.43)	1st (2.66)	16 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Storm Premier 1	2.67 (+1.10)	2nd (2.42)	14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White	2.00 (+0.43)	4th (1.85)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
4	Lakota FC Pre- Black	2.00 (+0.43)	3rd (2.00)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

34 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Pride Elite Pre to FC Storm Premier 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

2 even

27 favour them

-2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

18 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.19 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	FC Storm Premier 1 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +17	Home Lawrence Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.83	1.48	Upside
Sun Nov 8 01:30 PM	Lakota FC Pre- Black 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +6	Home FC Pride Performance Center (Turf) · turf	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–2	1.27	1.46	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Louisville City Academy Pre

+13

3.00

WWWW

-0.05

-0.25

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 1

+17

2.67

WWWWD

-0.31

+0.42

100%

1.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	1–1
W	Fri Oct 16	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–0
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	5–1
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White

2.00

WWWLD

-0.13

+0.48

91%

3.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	3–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	5–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–2	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–4	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Pre- Black

2.00

WLWLW

+0.31

-0.55

94%

3.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	5–0
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	2–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

1.57

LWWWL

-0.31

+1.19

15%

5.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	1–2
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	5–5
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre

-4

1.33

LWLWL

-0.00

—

5.7

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-5

1.00

LWDLL

-0.13

+1.84

7.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	2–5
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–3
W	Fri Sep 11	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 5	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	2–6
D	Sun Aug 16	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–4	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

-7

0.80

DLLLW

-0.11

+0.47

7.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–3	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

-21

0.75

LLLWL

+0.00

+1.84

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	1–7
L	Fri Sep 11	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	1–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–6	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-10

0.00

LLLLL

+0.00

+0.56

9.9

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	0–1
L	Fri Sep 18	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.