FC Storm Premier 1

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 10 teams · FC Storm (all teams)

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1st

6-1-0 record · 7 played

2.71 points per game

+20 goal diff · 27–7

WWWDWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4

-0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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FC Storm Premier 1
1st · 2.71 PPG

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
8th · 0.80 PPG

Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex, field 6A ↗ far trip

82% 10% 8%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 4.0 for, 1.4 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so far	FC Storm Premier 1	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
Position	1st	8th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-0	1-1-3
Points per game	2.71	0.80
Goals for / game	3.9	2.0
Goals against / game	1.0	3.4
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W D W W W	W L L L D
Biggest win	6–1 at Mercury Pre- 1	4–1 at Mercury Pre- 1
Worst loss	—	0–5 at Columbus Force Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.84	-0.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.21	-0.22

Common opponents: Mercury Pre- 1 — we 6–1; they 4–1. Columbus Force Pre — we 5–1; they 0–5. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 6–2; they 2–2. FC Pride Elite Pre — we 4–1; they 2–3.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lexington Sporting Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Storm Premier 1 – Lexington Sporting Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.38 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

60% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.4 average finish

1st 60%
2nd 38%
3rd 2%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

31 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Storm Premier 1 to Lexington Sporting Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

28 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

19 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.31 · 5th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -7	Away far trip Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–1	2.56	2.69	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Louisville City Academy Pre 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13	Away far trip Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●●○ Tough	41%	2–2	1.43	2.55	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Storm Premier 1

+20

2.71

WWWDW

-0.21

+0.31

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	4–1
D	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	1–1
W	Fri Oct 16	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–0
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	5–1
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	2–2	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisville City Academy Pre

+13

2.60

WWWWD

-0.30

+0.01

100%

1.8

D	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	5–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	3–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	2–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White

2.00

WWWLD

-0.09

+0.31

98%

3.6

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	3–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	5–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–2	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Pre- Black

2.00

WLWLW

+0.30

-0.57

98%

3.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	5–0
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	2–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	2–0	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

1.38

WWWLL

-0.01

+0.72

5.5

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	1–2
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	5–5
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	2–2

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre

-4

1.33

LWLWL

-0.01

—

5.5

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-5

1.00

LWDLL

-0.10

+1.51

7.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	2–5
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–3
W	Fri Sep 11	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 5	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	2–6
D	Sun Aug 16	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

-7

0.80

DLLLW

-0.22

+0.57

8.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	2–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Storm Premier 1 · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–3	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

-21

0.75

LLLWL

+0.01

+1.51

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	1–7
L	Fri Sep 11	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	1–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-10

0.14

LLLLD

+0.26

-0.09

9.8

D	Sat Oct 24	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (7th)	0–1
L	Fri Sep 18	at	FC Storm Premier 1 (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Columbus Force Pre (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (9th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (4th)	0–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.34 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.