Ohio Premier Pre-Regional
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
OP Training Facility, field 5S ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.5 for, 1.8 against · 2.52 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Premier Pre-Regional | Grasshoppers FC White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-1 | 0-2-5 |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.29 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L W D | L D L L L |
| Biggest win | 7–2 at Grasshoppers FC White | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Pacesetter SC Pre- Red | 0–6 at GTFC Impact Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.61 | -1.67 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | +0.46 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 7–2 at Grasshoppers FC White (W)
Common opponents: Ohio Premier Pre — we 2–2; they 1–2, 3–3. Pacesetter SC Pre- Red — we 5–4, 1–2; they 2–2, 1–5. GTFC Impact Pre — we 2–2; they 3–5, 0–6.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Ohio Premier Pre sit 2nd on 1.83 PPG; we are on 1.60.A point moves us above Ohio Premier Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Grasshoppers FC White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier Pre-Regional – Grasshoppers FC White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 15%
- 2nd 34%
- 3rd 46%
- 4th 5%
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GTFC Impact Pre | 2.17 (+0.57) | 1st (2.07) | 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 2 | Ohio Premier Pre | 1.83 (+0.23) | 2nd (1.67) | A point next game |
How the results connect
37 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Premier Pre-Regional to Grasshoppers FC White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.07 · 4th hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
Grasshoppers FC White 5th · 0-2-5 · GD -18 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.52 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
GTFC Impact Pre 1st · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Rossford Soccer Center Dome |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–3 | 1.03 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Mon Oct 26 05:15 PM |
Ohio Premier Pre 2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +10 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
3–3 | 1.53 | 1.64 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GTFC Impact Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWL | -0.47 | +0.71 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Ohio Premier Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 11 | 1.83 | WWLWD | -0.55 | +0.83 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact Pre · Mon Oct 26 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Ohio Premier Pre-Regional | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 8 | 1.60 | DWLDW | -0.24 | +0.07 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Grasshoppers FC White · Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact Pre · Mon Oct 26 vs Ohio Premier Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pacesetter SC Pre- Red | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 10 | 1.25 | LLDWW | +0.18 | — | 100% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 5 | Grasshoppers FC White | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLDL | +0.46 | +0.61 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.